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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 02:00:13

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
  • Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,882B ◆ | BTC: $71,730 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $664.82 44.29 34.5 $659.14 Neutral 0.80
QQQ $593.87 43.92 36.6 $588.65 Neutral 0.73
IWM $255.88 53.68 46.2 $251.53 Bearish 1.20

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 25.78 51.38 68.3 $11.00 Bullish 0.56
TNX 43.43 58.67 65.3 - - -
GLD $435.30 37.57 55.6 $416.47 Neutral 0.80
DXY 99.64 50.49 48.1 - - -
SLV $66.68 38.06 29.4 $53.06 Neutral 0.75

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.34%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.64
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,850
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,033,142
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.28 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.07%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B ▲ (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,882B ◆
  • BTC-USD: $71,730 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (20):

[1] WTI nosedives below $90 as Iran reopens Hormuz for two weeks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-nosedives-below-90-as-iran-reopens-hormuz-for-two-weeks-202604080550 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 05:50:07 Z

[2] US Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Struggles below 99.00, one-month low amid risk-on URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-price-forecast-struggles-below-9900-one-month-low-amid-risk-on-202604080545 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 05:45:00 Z

[3] USD/INR tumbles on US-Iran two-week ceasefire, RBI leaves Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-tumbles-on-us-iran-two-week-ceasefire-rbi-leaves-repo-rate-unchanged-at-525-202604080524 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 05:24:29 Z

[4] EUR/GBP edges lower to near 0.8700, ECB hawkish stance cushions downside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-edges-lower-to-near-08700-ecb-hawkish-stance-cushions-downside-202604080514 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 05:14:03 Z

[5] Canadian Dollar gains as market sentiment improves after US-Iran ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gains-on-risk-on-sentiment-following-us-iran-ceasefire-202604080506 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 05:06:24 Z

[6] US President Donald Trump says 'big day for world peace' as attacks paused URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-says-big-day-for-world-peace-as-attacks-paused-202604080503 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 05:03:30 Z

[7] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604080500 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 05:00:21 Z

[8] Gold retains positive bias as US‑Iran ceasefire and easing Fed rate hike bets weigh on USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-eases-from-three-week-top-holds-near-4-800-as-us-iran-ceasefire-pressures-usd-202604080348 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:55:40 Z

[9] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604080455 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:55:15 Z

[10] Asian stocks surge on US-Iran ceasefire news; Nikkei 225 and Kospi jump over 5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-surge-on-us-iran-ceasefire-news-nikkei-225-and-kospi-jump-over-5-202604080446 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:46:50 Z

[11] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604080445 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:45:18 Z

[12] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD rises after a US-Iran two-week ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-rises-after-a-us-iran-two-week-ceasefire-202604080444 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:44:05 Z

[13] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604080435 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:35:06 Z

[14] India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) in line with expectations (5.25%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-rbi-interest-rate-decision-repo-rate-in-line-with-expectations-525-202604080433 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:33:07 Z

[15] India Reverse Repo Rate remains unchanged at 3.35% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-reverse-repo-rate-remains-unchanged-at-335-202604080430 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:30:54 Z

[16] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604080430 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:30:09 Z

[17] Pound Sterling advances as US-Iran ceasefire improves market sentiment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-advances-as-us-iran-ceasefire-improves-market-sentiment-202604080419 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:19:14 Z

[18] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Rises above 0.5800 after RBNZ rate hold, but remains below 100-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-rises-above-05800-after-rbnz-rate-hold-but-remains-below-100-day-ema-202604080412 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:12:20 Z

[19] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bulls now await acceptance above $77.00/200-EMA on H4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-bulls-now-await-acceptance-above-7700-200-ema-on-h4-202604080403 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:03:42 Z

[20] Japanese Yen surges against US Dollar as Trump confirms two-week ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-surges-against-us-dollar-as-trump-confirms-two-week-ceasefire-202604080402 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 04:02:24 Z

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] Germany to take steps to protect Hormuz shipping, FM says Time: 2026-04-08T05:50:29.718Z

[2] Bahrain says fire at site hit in Iranian attack brought under control Time: 2026-04-08T05:31:04.478Z

[3] UN chief welcomes US-Iran ceasefire, urges lasting peace Time: 2026-04-08T05:06:10.612Z

[4] Sirens sound in Bahrain as authorities urge calm Time: 2026-04-08T04:32:58.719Z

[5] US to help manage traffic buildup in Hormuz, Trump says Time: 2026-04-08T04:16:52.682Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled