Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-08 00:00:17
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $71,298 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $664.82 | 44.29 | 34.5 | $659.14 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| QQQ | $593.87 | 43.92 | 36.6 | $588.65 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| IWM | $255.88 | 53.68 | 46.2 | $251.53 | Bearish | 1.20 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 25.78 | 51.38 | 68.3 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.56 |
| TNX | 43.43 | 58.67 | 65.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $435.30 | 37.57 | 55.6 | $416.47 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| DXY | 99.64 | 50.49 | 48.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.68 | 38.06 | 29.4 | $53.06 | Neutral | 0.75 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.34%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.64
- Growth vs Value: 0.89
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,850
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,033,142
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.28 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.07%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
- BTC-USD: $71,298 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- GOOGL: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] Indonesia Foreign Reserves: $148.2 (March) vs previous $151.9 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-foreign-reserves-1482-march-vs-previous-1519-202604080353 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 03:53:57 Z
[2] Gold eases from three-week top, holds near $4,800 as US-Iran ceasefire pressures USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-eases-from-three-week-top-holds-near-4-800-as-us-iran-ceasefire-pressures-usd-202604080348 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 03:48:15 Z
[3] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rises above 1.1650, moving averages amid bullish reversal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-rises-above-11650-moving-averages-amid-bullish-reversal-202604080340 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 03:40:45 Z
[4] Breman Speech: RBNZ Governor sheds light on inflation and interest rate outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-set-to-hold-interest-rate-keeping-options-open-as-inflation-risks-build-202604072115 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 03:28:45 Z
[5] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aims to revisit multi-year high of 0.7190 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-aims-to-revisit-multi-year-high-of-07190-202604080327 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 03:27:36 Z
[6] US President Trump: Issue of Iran's uranium would be perfectly taken care of URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-trump-issue-of-uranium-would-be-perfectly-taken-care-of-202604080326 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 03:26:55 Z
[7] Israel’s PM Netanyahu supports Trump’s decision to suspend attacks on Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/israels-pm-netanyahu-supports-trumps-decision-to-suspend-attacks-on-iran-202604080316 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 03:16:00 Z
[8] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains momentum, bullish bias prevails above 100-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-gains-momentum-bullish-bias-prevails-above-100-day-ema-202604080227 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 02:27:10 Z
[9] NZD/USD sticks to gains near two-week top, around 0.5800 after RBNZ leaves rates unchanged URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-sticks-to-gains-near-two-week-top-around-05800-after-rbnz-leaves-rates-unchanged-202604080215 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 02:15:01 Z
[10] AUD/NZD edges lower toward 1.2150 as RBNZ keeps OCR unchanged URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-nzd-edges-lower-toward-12150-as-rbnz-keeps-ocr-unchanged-202604080213 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 02:13:04 Z
[11] New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (2.25%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-rbnz-interest-rate-decision-meets-forecasts-225-202604080200 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 02:00:02 Z
Iran War News
Updates (8):
[1] Trump says uranium in Iran will be âperfectly taken care ofâ - AFP Time: 2026-04-08T03:20:44.557Z
[2] Russian envoy says Iran crisis exposes NATO weakness and US-Europe rift Time: 2026-04-08T03:12:07.330Z
[3] Trump spoke to Netanyahu and Pakistanâs military chief on Iran ceasefire - CBS Time: 2026-04-08T02:59:13.699Z
[4] Israel backs Trumpâs two-week suspension of strikes against Iran Time: 2026-04-08T02:43:41.464Z
[5] US Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari calls for Trumpâs removal from office Time: 2026-04-08T02:34:19.491Z
[6] Trump says China pushed Iran to negotiate - AFP Time: 2026-04-08T02:29:07.525Z
[7] White House calls ceasefire a US âvictoryâ after 38-day campaign Time: 2026-04-08T02:24:15.888Z
[8] Iraqâs Islamic Resistance suspends operations for two weeks - Reuters Time: 2026-04-08T02:21:28.171Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled