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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 22:00:09

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
  • Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,882B ◆ | BTC: $71,508 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $664.82 44.29 34.5 $659.14 Neutral 0.80
QQQ $593.87 43.92 36.6 $588.65 Neutral 0.73
IWM $255.88 53.68 46.2 $251.53 Bearish 1.20

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 25.78 51.38 68.3 $11.00 Bullish 0.56
TNX 43.43 58.67 65.3 - - -
GLD $435.30 37.57 55.6 $416.47 Neutral 0.80
DXY 99.64 50.49 48.1 - - -
SLV $66.68 38.06 29.4 $53.06 Neutral 0.75

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.34%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.64
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,850
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,033,142
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.28 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.07%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B ▼ (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,882B ◆
  • BTC-USD: $71,508 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (13):

[1] White House: Considering in-person talks with Iran but not been finalized URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/white-house-considering-in-person-talks-with-iran-but-not-been-finalised-202604080144 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 01:44:25 Z

[2] EUR/JPY trades near 185.00 after losing recent gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-trades-near-18500-after-paring-recent-gains-202604080135 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 01:35:23 Z

[3] WTI Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near $90.50 as technical breakdown comes into play URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-seems-vulnerable-near-9050-as-technical-breakdown-comes-into-play-202604080128 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 01:28:36 Z

[4] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8680 vs. 6.8854 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68680-vs-68854-previous-202604080115 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 01:15:34 Z

[5] RBNZ set to remain on hold as markets look for hints of possible interest-rate hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-set-to-hold-interest-rate-keeping-options-open-as-inflation-risks-build-202604072115 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 01:15:00 Z

[6] US Dollar Index softens to near 99.00 as Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire, FOMC Minutes loom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-softens-to-near-9900-as-trump-agrees-to-two-week-ceasefire-fomc-minutes-loom-202604080109 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 01:09:02 Z

[7] USD/CHF hangs near two-week low, around 0.7900 as US-Iran ceasefire triggers USD sell-off URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-hangs-near-two-week-low-around-07900-as-us-iran-ceasefire-triggers-usd-sell-off-202604080053 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:53:12 Z

[8] NZD/USD rises to near 0.5800 following US-Iran ceasefire, RBNZ decision eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-rises-to-near-05800-following-us-iran-ceasefire-rbnz-decision-eyed-202604080050 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:50:06 Z

[9] Canadian Dollar gathers strength as Trump suspends US attacks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gathers-strength-as-trump-suspends-us-attacks-202604080026 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:26:07 Z

[10] Iran continues attacks in the Middle East and on Israel, despite the ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-continues-attacks-in-the-middle-east-and-on-israel-despite-the-ceasefire-202604080025 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:25:48 Z

[11] Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis dipped from previous ¥3145B to ¥2709B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-trade-balance-bop-basis-dipped-from-previous-y3145b-to-y2709b-in-february-202604080024 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:24:39 Z

[12] Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis declined to ¥2.709B in February from previous ¥3145B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-trade-balance-bop-basis-declined-to-y2709b-in-february-from-previous-y3145b-202604080024 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:24:29 Z

[13] Silver rallies to fresh weekly high, above $77.00 as USD plummets on US-Iran ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-rallies-to-fresh-weekly-high-above-7700-as-usd-plummets-on-us-iran-ceasefire-202604080022 Published: Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:22:43 Z

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] Iran includes enrichment in Farsi ceasefire plan - AP Time: 2026-04-08T01:56:36.360Z

[2] Trump administration to insist on zero enrichment with Iran – N12 Time: 2026-04-08T01:34:50.923Z

[3] Australia backs diplomatic efforts to reopen Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-04-08T01:27:50.104Z

[4] Graham urges caution and congressional review on Iran diplomacy Time: 2026-04-08T01:18:03.420Z

[5] Iran’s supreme leader orders all military units to cease fire - CNN Time: 2026-04-08T01:14:48.815Z

[6] American journalist Kittleson released from captivity in Iraq, Rubio says Time: 2026-04-08T01:01:25.873Z

[7] Mark Levin accuses Iran of violating two-week ceasefire Time: 2026-04-08T00:58:42.791Z

[8] Iran, Oman to charge fees on Hormuz ships during two-week ceasefire - AP Time: 2026-04-08T00:49:46.485Z

[9] Trump calls CNN report on Iran 10-point demands a ‘Fraud’ Time: 2026-04-08T00:45:35.937Z

[10] Iran says Trump accepted 10 conditions to end war, including enrichment Time: 2026-04-08T00:25:44.289Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled