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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 20:00:11

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
  • Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,026B ◆ | BTC: $68,860 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $664.82 44.29 34.5 $659.14 Neutral 0.80
QQQ $593.87 43.92 36.6 $588.65 Neutral 0.73
IWM $255.88 53.68 46.2 $251.53 Bearish 1.20

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 25.78 51.38 68.3 $11.00 Bullish 0.56
TNX 43.43 58.67 65.3 - - -
GLD $435.30 37.57 55.6 $416.47 Neutral 0.80
DXY 99.64 50.49 48.1 - - -
SLV $66.68 38.06 29.4 $53.06 Neutral 0.75

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.34%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.64
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,850
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,033,142
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.28 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.07%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B ▲ (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,026B ◆
  • BTC-USD: $68,860 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (16):

[1] Gold rises above $4,800 as Iran agrees to two-week ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-jumps-above-4-750-on-trumps-iran-strike-delay-202604072246 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:52:40 Z

[2] GBP/USD surges toward 1.3400 as Iran ceasefire deflates the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-surges-toward-13400-as-iran-ceasefire-deflates-the-us-dollar-202604072351 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:51:19 Z

[3] Japan Current Account n.s.a. below forecasts (¥3549B) in February: Actual (¥3.933B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-current-account-nsa-below-forecasts-y3549b-in-february-actual-y3933b-202604072350 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:50:01 Z

[4] Iran’s Foreign Minister: Safe passage of Hormuz will be possible for two weeks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-foreign-minister-safe-passage-of-hormuz-will-be-possible-for-two-weeks-202604072343 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:43:32 Z

[5] Iran confirms US negotiations, says ceasefire hinges on finalising 10-point proposal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-confirms-us-negotiations-says-ceasefire-hinges-on-finalising-10-point-proposal-202604072330 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:30:11 Z

[6] Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above forecasts (2.7%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-labor-cash-earnings-yoy-came-in-at-33-above-forecasts-27-in-february-202604072330 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:30:07 Z

[7] WTI Crude crashes below $90 as Trump suspends Iran strikes, but will it last? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-crude-crashes-below-90-as-trump-suspends-iran-strikes-but-will-it-last-202604072306 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:17:25 Z

[8] USD/JPY retreats from 160.00 as ceasefire crushes Oil premium URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-retreats-from-16000-as-ceasefire-crushes-oil-premium-202604072317 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:17:15 Z

[9] AUD/USD surges past 0.7050 as Trump suspends Iran strikes for two weeks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-surges-past-07050-as-trump-suspends-iran-strikes-for-two-weeks-202604072315 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:15:14 Z

[10] EUR/USD climbs above 1.1650 after Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire with Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-climbs-above-11650-after-trump-agrees-to-two-week-ceasefire-with-iran-202604072315 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:15:09 Z

[11] RBNZ set to keep interest rate unchanged for second straight meeting as inflation risks grow URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-set-to-hold-interest-rate-keeping-options-open-as-inflation-risks-build-202604072115 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:15:00 Z

[12] South Korea Current Account Balance climbed from previous 13.26B to 23.19B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-current-account-balance-climbed-from-previous-1326b-to-2319b-in-february-202604072300 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 23:00:02 Z

[13] Breaking: US President Donald Trump delays bombing for two weeks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-us-president-donald-trump-delays-bombing-for-two-weeks-202604072237 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 22:37:09 Z

[14] NZD: RBNZ seen steady as markets overprice hikes – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-rbnz-seen-steady-as-markets-overprice-hikes-td-securities-202604072228 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 22:28:00 Z

[15] NZD/USD stays neutral ahead of RBNZ decision as geopolitical risks and policy outlook weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-stays-neutral-ahead-of-rbnz-decision-as-geopolitical-risks-and-policy-outlook-weigh-202604072159 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:59:08 Z

[16] Asia FX: Cautious outlook with Iran risks – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asia-fx-cautious-outlook-with-iran-risks-mufg-202604072153 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:53:00 Z

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] Almost all war objectives achieved, talks continue in Islamabad, Iran says Time: 2026-04-07T23:56:01.431Z

[2] Trump posts Iran’s official ceasefire declaration Time: 2026-04-07T23:46:54.158Z

[3] US confirms ceasefire in force, suspends strikes on Iran - Axios Time: 2026-04-07T23:40:32.896Z

[4] Iran to cease military operations if attacks halt, Foreign Minister says Time: 2026-04-07T23:17:43.848Z

[5] Trump accepting Tehran’s 10 conditions is a victory, Former Iranian advisor says Time: 2026-04-07T23:09:06.645Z

[6] Oil tumbles, US futures surge on Trump ceasefire plan - NBC News Time: 2026-04-07T23:02:49.328Z

[7] Trump accepts conditions for two-week ceasefire - Iranian state TV Time: 2026-04-07T23:00:38.863Z

[8] White House official says Israel agreed to temporary ceasefire - CNN Time: 2026-04-07T22:50:56.186Z

[9] Trump announces two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on Strait opening Time: 2026-04-07T22:38:01.763Z

[10] UN’s Mai Sato warns Iran war violates international law, threatens civilians Time: 2026-04-07T22:29:03.019Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled