Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 18:01:15

Executive Summary

• Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
• Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
• Credit Signal: Risk ON
• Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
• Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A)
• Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
• MOVE Index: 83 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
• Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% ▲ (Normal (Steepening))
• Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $69,888 ▲ (Neutral)
• Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Macro Board

Macro Fundamentals

• 10Y Yield: 4.34%
• Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
• DXY: 99.64 ▼
• Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▲
• Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 ▲ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

• MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15
• VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
• 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,850
• 0DTE Put Volume: 4,033,142
• 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.28 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

• HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
• BBB Spread: 1.07%
• 2s10s Spread: 0.52% ▲ (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

• Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
• Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
• Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

• Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
• Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
• Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
• US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
• Liquidity Regime: N/A
• ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B ▲ (USD approx)
• BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
• Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
• BTC-USD: $69,888 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

• DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
• GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
• Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

• 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
• 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
• Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
• Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

• AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
• MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
• NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
• GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
• AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
• META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
• TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
• WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
• JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
• GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

• GS: 2026-04-13
• JPM: 2026-04-14
• TSLA: 2026-04-22
• MSFT: 2026-04-29
• GOOGL: 2026-04-29
• META: 2026-04-29
• AAPL: 2026-04-30
• AMZN: 2026-04-30
• NVDA: 2026-05-20
• WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

• Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
• Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
• Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
• Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
• Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (6):

[1] USD/JPY tests 160.00 as ceasefire uncertainty keeps the Yen under pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-tests-16000-as-ceasefire-uncertainty-keeps-the-yen-under-pressure-202604072152 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:52:00 Z

[2] AUD/USD edges higher as ceasefire hopes lift risk appetite ahead of deadline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-edges-higher-as-ceasefire-hopes-lift-risk-appetite-ahead-of-deadline-202604072149 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:49:22 Z

[3] Pakistan asks Trump to extend Iran deadline by two weeks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-pm-sharif-asks-trump-to-extend-iran-hormuz-deadline-by-two-weeks-202604072121 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:27:08 Z

[4] United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock fell from previous 10.263M to 3.719M in April 3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-api-weekly-crude-oil-stock-fell-from-previous-10263m-to-3719m-in-april-3-202604072116 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:16:04 Z

[5] RBNZ set to hold interest rate, keeping options open as inflation risks build URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-set-to-hold-interest-rate-keeping-options-open-as-inflation-risks-build-202604072115 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:15:00 Z

[6] Philippines: Inflation forecast lifted as BSP seen on hold – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-inflation-forecast-lifted-as-bsp-seen-on-hold-uob-202604072111 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:11:00 Z

Iran War News

Updates (9):

[1] US strikes destroy key IRGC small boat facility in Bushehr - CENTCOM Time: 2026-04-07T21:45:05.014Z

[2] US envoy says no country can hold world hostage over straits Time: 2026-04-07T21:42:37.762Z

[3] Iranian ambassador reports progress in Pakistan mediation to stop war Time: 2026-04-07T21:38:42.911Z

[4] Trump seeks right deal with Iran, Lindsey Graham says Time: 2026-04-07T21:35:33.404Z

[5] Iran's decades of terrorism won't continue under Trump - White House Time: 2026-04-07T21:31:52.239Z

[6] Iran moving toward two-week ceasefire, source says Time: 2026-04-07T21:27:58.570Z

[7] Kuwait blames Iraq for Basra consulate attack Time: 2026-04-07T21:22:23.067Z

[8] Qatar says four injured after debris falls on house following missile interception Time: 2026-04-07T21:17:16.267Z

[9] ‘Good news’ expected soon in Iran war talks, sources tell CNN Time: 2026-04-07T21:07:29.756Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

• Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
• Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
• Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
• War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
• Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
• Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
• Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled