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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 17:01:03

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
  • Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 83 ▲ | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% ▲ (Normal (Steepening) ◆)
  • Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $69,277 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $659.98 ▲ 44.29 34.5 $659.14 Neutral 0.80
QQQ $589.37 ▲ 43.92 36.6 $588.65 Neutral 0.73
IWM $253.50 ▲ 53.68 46.2 $251.53 Bearish 1.20

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 25.78 51.38 68.3 $11.00 Bullish 0.56
TNX 43.43 58.67 65.3 - - -
GLD $432.01 ▼ 37.57 55.6 $416.47 Neutral 0.80
DXY 99.68 ▲ 50.84 ▲ 47.8 ▼ - - -
SLV $66.10 ▲ 38.06 29.4 $53.06 Neutral 0.75

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.34%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.68 ▲
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▲
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.31 ▼ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 83.15 ▲
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,850
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,033,142
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.28 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.07% ▲
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% ▲ (Normal (Steepening) ◆)

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $N/AB
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $N/AB
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
  • BTC-USD: $69,277 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21

FX News Wire

Unread articles (2):

[1] USD/SGD: Bearish momentum builds into MAS decision – OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-sgd-bearish-momentum-builds-into-mas-decision-ocbc-202604072022 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 20:22:00 Z

[2] USD/CHF Price Analysis: US Dollar faces stiff resistance, retreats below 0.8000 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-analysis-faces-stiff-resistance-retreats-below-08000-202604072021 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 20:21:20 Z

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[1] UN chief Guterres condemns wholesale destruction of civilian infrastructure Time: 2026-04-07T20:54:50.082Z

[2] Iran reports attacks on aluminum factory, petrochemical complex Time: 2026-04-07T20:50:28.797Z

[3] Pope Leo calls Trump's threats against Iran 'unacceptable' Time: 2026-04-07T20:39:02.741Z

[4] Amnesty International condemns Trump's threats against Iran infrastructure Time: 2026-04-07T20:34:25.937Z

[5] Trump raps Iran's 'illegal' call for human shields around power plants - NBC Time: 2026-04-07T20:31:54.340Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled