← Archive

2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 16:30:42

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
  • Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.32 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.00% ▼ (N/A ◆)
  • Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $69,305 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $659.43 ▲ 44.29 34.5 $659.14 Neutral 0.80
QQQ $588.60 ▲ 43.92 36.6 $588.65 Neutral 0.73
IWM $253.27 ▲ 53.68 46.2 $251.53 Bearish 1.20

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 25.78 ▼ 51.38 68.3 $11.00 Bullish 0.53
TNX 43.43 58.67 65.3 - - -
GLD $432.77 ▲ 37.57 55.6 $416.47 Neutral 0.80
DXY 99.61 ▼ 50.30 ▼ 48.2 ▲ - - -
SLV $66.05 ▼ 38.06 29.4 $53.06 Neutral 0.75

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.34%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.61 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▼
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 ▲ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.32 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,850 ▲
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,033,142 ▲
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.28 ▼ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 0.00% ▼
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.00% ▼ (N/A ◆)

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
  • BTC-USD: $69,305 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.46%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Blasts heard near Konarak naval facilities in Iran's southeast Time: 2026-04-07T20:14:05.647Z

[2] Trump says 'heated negotiation' underway with Iran Time: 2026-04-07T20:00:59.444Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled