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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 16:02:17

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.22)
  • Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% ▼ >50d, 49.8% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.33 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,026B | BTC: $68,994 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99% ▲, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $659.09 ▲ 44.29 34.5 $656.85 Neutral 0.89
QQQ $588.60 ▲ 43.92 36.6 $586.98 Neutral 0.81
IWM $252.88 ▲ 53.68 46.2 $251.46 Bearish 1.37

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 26.02 ▼ 51.38 68.3 $11.00 Bullish 0.61
TNX 43.43 58.67 65.3 - - -
GLD $432.13 ▲ 37.57 55.6 $416.47 Neutral 0.80
DXY 99.66 ▼ 50.68 ▼ 47.9 ▲ - - -
SLV $66.06 ▲ 38.06 29.4 $53.06 Neutral 0.75

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.34%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.66 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▲
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 ▲ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.33 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,092,772 ▲
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,990,415 ▲
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.29 ▼ (Balanced 0DTE Flow ◆)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.07%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% ▼ (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,026B
  • BTC-USD: $68,994 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99% ▲
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.46% ▲
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • No key economic prints today.

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (4):

[1] Silver Price Analysis: A bearish crossover looms, sellers eye $70 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-analysis-a-bearish-crossover-looms-sellers-eye-70-202604071940 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:40:21 Z

[2] Gold climbs toward $4,680 as weaker Dollar offsets war anxiety URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-toward-4-680-as-weaker-dollar-offsets-war-anxiety-202604071938 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:38:52 Z

[3] Vietnam: Strong growth but inflation challenges SBV – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/vietnam-strong-growth-but-inflation-challenges-sbv-commerzbank-202604071937 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:37:00 Z

[4] United States Consumer Credit Change below expectations ($10B) in February: Actual ($9.48B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-consumer-credit-change-below-expectations-10b-in-february-actual-948b-202604071900 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:00:04 Z

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Iran's attacks trigger blasts, sirens in Arab neighbors as US deadline looms Time: 2026-04-07T19:57:00.474Z

[BREAKING] [2] Iran says positively reviewing Pakistan's call for two-week truce - Reuters Time: 2026-04-07T19:51:22.311Z

[BREAKING] [3] US says will soon respond to Pakistan's call for deadline extension - Axios Time: 2026-04-07T19:48:02.166Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
  • Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
  • Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
  • War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
  • Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
  • Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled