Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 15:00:40
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (31.9% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,812B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.34 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $68,348 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.97%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $653.86 ▼ | 44.29 | 34.5 | $658.68 | Bearish | 1.84 |
| QQQ | $582.12 ▼ | 43.92 | 36.6 | $588.55 | Bearish | 1.59 |
| IWM | $250.67 ▼ | 53.68 | 46.2 | $251.81 | Bearish | 2.30 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 27.81 ▲ | 51.38 | 68.3 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.50 |
| TNX | 43.43 ▲ | 58.67 | 65.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $428.11 ▼ | 37.57 | 55.6 | $404.02 | Neutral | 0.88 |
| DXY | 99.84 ▲ | 52.33 ▲ | 47.0 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $64.57 ▼ | 38.06 | 29.4 | $52.01 | Neutral | 0.84 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.34% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.84 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.31 ▼ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.34 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,443,916 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,505,835 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.43 ▲ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.07%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 31.9% (of 501)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,812B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
- BTC-USD: $68,348 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.97%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.30%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Forex Today: US Dollar holds firm, Oil surges as Iran deadline keeps markets on edge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-holds-firm-oil-surges-as-iran-deadline-keeps-markets-on-edge-202604071852 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 18:52:23 Z
[2] Energy: Price shock drives building material costs – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/energy-price-shock-drives-building-material-costs-ing-202604071852 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 18:52:00 Z
[3] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls test 0.6950 resistance after rebound from 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-bulls-test-06950-resistance-after-rebound-from-100-day-sma-202604071839 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 18:39:42 Z
[4] Fed’s Goolsbee: Inflation would come roaring back URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-goolsbee-inflation-would-come-roaring-back-202604071816 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 18:16:26 Z
[5] Asian FX: Sideways as Hormuz risks linger – OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-fx-sideways-as-hormuz-risks-linger-ocbc-202604071807 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 18:07:00 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled