Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 14:00:53
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (31.9% >50d, 49.8% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.33 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $68,722 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.97%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $656.82 ▲ | 44.29 | 34.5 | $659.06 | Neutral | 1.20 |
| QQQ | $585.24 ▼ | 43.92 | 36.6 | $588.58 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| IWM | $252.29 ▼ | 53.68 | 46.2 | $251.69 | Bearish | 1.60 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 26.57 ▼ | 51.38 | 68.3 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.57 |
| TNX | 43.49 ▼ | 58.67 | 65.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $429.77 ▲ | 37.57 | 55.6 | $416.49 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| DXY | 99.84 ▼ | 52.34 ▼ | 47.0 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $65.33 ▲ | 38.06 | 29.4 | $53.28 | Neutral | 0.82 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.35% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.84 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.33 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,167,254 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,990,658 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 ▼ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.07%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 31.9% (of 501)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $N/AB
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $N/AB
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
- Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
- BTC-USD: $68,722 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.97%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.30%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] WTI remains volatile ahead of Trump’s Iran deadline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-remains-volatile-ahead-of-trumps-iran-deadline-202604071752 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:52:49 Z
[2] TRY: Fragile as oil shock worsens outlook – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/try-fragile-as-oil-shock-worsens-outlook-commerzbank-202604071729 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:29:19 Z
[3] United States 3-Year Note Auction: 3.897% vs 3.579% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-3-year-note-auction-3897-vs-3579-202604071703 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:03:06 Z
[4] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast:Climbs as ceasefire hopes in the Mid-East battle fresh fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-climbs-as-ceasefire-hopes-in-the-mid-east-battle-fresh-fears-202604071701 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:01:56 Z
[5] Central banks: Asia and EM seen on hold this week – BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/central-banks-asia-and-em-seen-on-hold-this-week-bbh-202604071700 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:00:38 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[BREAKING] [1] Iran says UN envoy heading to Tehran for talks on Hormuz Strait Time: 2026-04-07T17:49:00.141Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled