Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 13:15:38
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.2)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (31.2% >50d, 49.9% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.32 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $17,041B ◆ | BTC: $68,322 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.97%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $656.15 ▼ | 44.29 | 34.5 | $659.05 | Bearish | 1.27 |
| QQQ | $584.54 ▼ | 43.92 | 36.6 | $588.58 | Bearish | 1.23 |
| IWM | $251.87 ▲ | 53.68 | 46.2 | $251.69 | Bearish | 1.79 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 26.53 ▲ | 51.38 | 68.3 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.58 |
| TNX | 43.59 ▼ | 58.67 | 65.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $428.55 ▲ | 37.57 | 55.6 | $404.02 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| DXY | 99.85 ▼ | 52.49 ▼ | 46.9 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $65.03 ▲ | 38.06 | 29.4 | $53.05 | Neutral | 0.80 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.36% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.85 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.32 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,902,910 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,623,819 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 ▲ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.07%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 31.2% (of 500)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B ▲ (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B ◆
- BTC-USD: $68,322 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.97%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran's latest proposal 'a lot better than what US expected' - Axios Time: 2026-04-07T17:13:14.066Z
[2] Rubio says there will be 'more news later today' - CNN Time: 2026-04-07T17:10:00.012Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled