Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 12:26:43
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (31.5% ▲ >50d, 49.4% ▲ >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.32 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $17,041B | BTC: $68,108 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.96% ▲, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $655.80 ▲ | 44.29 | 34.5 | $659.05 | Bearish | 1.29 |
| QQQ | $584.46 ▲ | 43.92 | 36.6 | $588.56 | Bearish | 1.22 |
| IWM | $251.39 ▲ | 53.68 | 46.2 | $251.67 | Bearish | 1.93 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 26.39 ▲ | 51.38 | 68.3 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.58 |
| TNX | 43.53 ▲ | 58.67 | 65.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $427.76 ▲ | 37.57 | 55.6 | $403.85 | Neutral | 0.88 |
| DXY | 99.86 ▲ | 52.59 ▲ | 46.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $64.75 ▲ | 38.06 | 29.4 | $52.01 | Neutral | 0.83 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.35% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.86 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.31 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.32 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,656,921 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,273,934 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.37 ▼ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.07%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 31.5% ▲ (of 501)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.4% ▲
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B
- BTC-USD: $68,108 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.96% ▲
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.94 (-0.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-3.9% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.48 (-0.3% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.22 (+3.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[1] Iran distributes 180,000 iodine tablets to Bushehr residents Time: 2026-04-07T16:20:00.000Z
[BREAKING] [2] Russia, China veto UN resolution on Hormuz shipping security Time: 2026-04-07T15:50:06.469Z
[3] Trump warns Iran of attack it 'has not seen', says 8 pm deadline stands Time: 2026-04-07T15:37:51.475Z
[4] Iran cuts off 'direct' communications with US not talks with mediators - WSJ Time: 2026-04-07T14:44:57.651Z
[5] Macron says French detainees freed from Iran, returning home Time: 2026-04-07T14:20:04.436Z
[6] Iran missile strike on telecom company injures two, UAE officials say Time: 2026-04-07T14:04:01.022Z
[BREAKING] [7] Iran cuts all diplomatic and backchannel contact with US - state media Time: 2026-04-07T13:47:50.481Z
[8] US strikes most likely outcome ahead of Trump Iran deadline - WSJ Time: 2026-04-07T13:10:57.590Z
[9] US says Kharg Island strikes hit military targets, not shift in strategy Time: 2026-04-07T12:54:44.360Z
[10] Efforts to facilitate US-Iran talks continue as strikes intensify, Pakistani sources say Time: 2026-04-07T12:31:25.169Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled