Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 11:00:42
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (32.4% >50d, 48.4% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.454 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.32 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.05% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $17,041B | BTC: $67,945 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.97%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $652.25 ▼ | 44.29 | 34.5 | $659.03 | Bearish | 1.93 |
| QQQ | $579.64 ▼ | 43.92 | 36.6 | $588.46 | Bearish | 1.89 |
| IWM | $250.40 ▼ | 53.68 | 46.2 | $251.65 | Bearish | 2.36 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 26.92 ▲ | 51.38 | 68.3 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.53 |
| TNX | 43.70 ▲ | 58.67 | 65.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $425.36 ▼ | 37.57 | 55.6 | $403.82 | Neutral | 0.91 |
| DXY | 99.83 ▼ | 52.24 ▼ | 47.0 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $63.88 ▼ | 38.06 | 29.4 | $48.10 | Neutral | 0.92 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.37% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.83 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.31 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.32 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 912,366 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,417,522 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.55 ▲ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.05% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.07%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 32.4% (of 478)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 48.4%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B
- BTC-USD: $67,945 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.91B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.97%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.39 (-1.8% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.43 (-1.2% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.07 (+2.4% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- No key economic prints today.
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] Oil: Supply shock supports $90–100 well into 2027 – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-supply-shock-supports-90-100-well-into-2027-td-securities-202604071449 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:49:53 Z
[2] Iran cuts off direct communications with US – WSJ URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-cuts-off-direct-communications-with-us-wsj-202604071449 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:49:13 Z
[3] SEK: Growth outlook limits downside – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sek-growth-outlook-limits-downside-societe-generale-202604071441 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:41:02 Z
[4] New Zealand GDT Price Index fell from previous 0.1% to -3.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-gdt-price-index-fell-from-previous-01-to-34-202604071440 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:40:13 Z
[5] NZD: RBNZ seen on hold with dovish tone – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-rbnz-seen-on-hold-with-dovish-tone-ing-202604071433 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:33:49 Z
[6] Turkey Treasury Cash Balance: -279.58B (March) vs previous -94.42B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-treasury-cash-balance-27958b-march-vs-previous-9442b-202604071431 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:31:45 Z
[7] Brent: Futures curve signals temporary price spike – Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-futures-curve-signals-temporary-price-spike-deutsche-bank-202604071426 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:26:50 Z
[8] EUR: War shock clouds ECB outlook – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-war-shock-clouds-ecb-outlook-bny-202604071420 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:20:26 Z
[9] United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) registered at 42.8, below expectations (48.1) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-realclearmarkets-tipp-economic-optimism-mom-registered-at-428-below-expectations-481-in-april-202604071411 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:11:46 Z
[10] Gold: Near-term downside before late-2026 recovery – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-near-term-downside-before-late-2026-recovery-td-securities-202604071409 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:09:23 Z
[11] Euro area: Growth soft but still resilient – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-area-growth-soft-but-still-resilient-societe-generale-202604071401 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:01:37 Z
[12] Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a below forecasts (55.9) in March: Actual (49.7) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-ivey-purchasing-managers-index-sa-below-forecasts-559-in-march-actual-497-202604071400 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:00:01 Z