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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 08:00:07

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.2)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (33.9% >50d, 49.4% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.503 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.13% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,041B | BTC: $68,333 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $658.75 46.49 27.9 $655.86 Bullish 0.64
QQQ $588.29 45.67 29.6 $580.91 Bullish 0.58
IWM $252.03 54.90 35.6 $252.48 Bearish 1.48

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 24.17 43.91 47.8 $11.00 Neutral 0.73
TNX 43.35 51.98 47.9 - - -
GLD $427.90 37.96 55.8 $403.82 Bullish 0.62
DXY 100.00 52.67 48.0 - - -
SLV $65.98 38.53 29.4 $63.41 Bullish 0.51

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.33%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.00
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,582,539
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,382,960
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.13% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.09%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 33.9% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.4%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B
  • BTC-USD: $68,333 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.503
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.75B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.43%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-1.8% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.43 (-1.2% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.07 (+2.4% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (13):

[1] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD drifts below $72 with all eyes on Iran’s war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-drifts-below-72-with-all-eyes-on-irans-war-202604071146 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:46:19 Z

[2] Pound Sterling gives back gains against US Dollar as Iran denies ceasefire proposal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-gives-back-gains-against-us-dollar-as-iran-denies-ceasefire-proposal-202604071146 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:46:14 Z

[3] US military strikes targets on Iran's Kharg Island – Axios URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-military-strikes-targets-on-irans-kharg-island-axios-202604071144 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:44:24 Z

[4] Aluminium: Gulf outages tighten global balance – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aluminium-gulf-outages-tighten-global-balance-ing-202604071143 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:43:36 Z

[5] Oil: War risk and supply headlines support prices – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-war-risk-and-supply-headlines-support-prices-commerzbank-202604071133 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:33:58 Z

[6] AUD: Energy shock threatens fragile consumption – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-energy-shock-threatens-fragile-consumption-td-securities-202604071125 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:25:39 Z

[7] DXY: Energy shock keeps Dollar bid – BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-energy-shock-keeps-dollar-bid-bbh-202604071117 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:17:00 Z

[8] Gold Price Forecast: 20-day EMA acts as key barrier ahead of Trump’s deadline to Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-20-day-ema-acts-as-key-barrier-ahead-of-trumps-deadline-to-iran-202604071059 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 10:59:56 Z

[9] AUD/USD recovery stalls below 0.6950 with all eyes on the Iran war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-recovery-stalls-below-06950-with-all-eyes-on-the-iran-war-202604071048 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 10:48:55 Z

[10] Iran rejects US temporary ceasefire proposal - Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-rejects-us-temporary-ceasefire-proposal-reuters-202604071021 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 10:21:56 Z

[11] EUR/GBP approaches 0.8700 lows following Eurozone and UK services data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-approaches-08700-lows-following-eurozone-and-uk-services-data-202604071015 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 10:15:14 Z

[12] EUR/USD: Gradual recovery path tied to Hormuz risks – NBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-gradual-recovery-path-tied-to-hormuz-risks-nbc-202604071005 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 10:05:10 Z

[13] USD/INR faces pressure in countdown to Trump’s Iran deadline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-edges-lower-at-open-ahead-of-trumps-iran-deadline-202604070523 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:58:47 Z