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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 06:00:09

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.2)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (33.9% >50d, 49.4% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.503 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.13% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,041B | BTC: $69,133 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $658.75 46.49 27.9 $655.86 Bullish 0.64
QQQ $588.29 45.67 29.6 $580.91 Bullish 0.58
IWM $252.03 54.90 35.6 $252.48 Bearish 1.48

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 24.17 43.91 47.8 $11.00 Neutral 0.73
TNX 43.35 51.98 47.9 - - -
GLD $427.90 37.96 55.8 $403.82 Bullish 0.62
DXY 100.00 52.67 48.0 - - -
SLV $65.98 38.53 29.4 $63.41 Bullish 0.51

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.33%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.00
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,582,539
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,382,960
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.13% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.09%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 33.9% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.4%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B
  • BTC-USD: $69,133 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.503
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.75B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.43%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-1.8% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.43 (-1.2% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.07 (+2.4% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] Japan’s Katayama: Cost estimates rely on how long Middle East war will last URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-cost-estimates-rely-on-how-long-middle-east-war-will-last-202604070953 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:53:20 Z

[2] USD/JPY: Firm tone but capped below 162.00 – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-firm-tone-but-capped-below-16200-uob-202604070949 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:49:48 Z

[3] EUR/USD hits one-week highs beyond 1.1570 highs as sentiment brightens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-hovers-above-11520-with-trumps-deadline-on-iran-approaching-202604070625 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:46:57 Z

[4] UK: Energy shock weighs on outlook – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-energy-shock-weighs-on-outlook-societe-generale-202604070936 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:36:19 Z

[5] EUR/CAD rises to near 1.6100 due to hawkish ECB tone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-cad-rises-to-near-16100-due-to-hawkish-ecb-tone-202604070925 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:25:37 Z

[6] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604070916 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:16:24 Z

[7] NZD/USD: Tactical support eyed near 0.5630 – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-tactical-support-eyed-near-05630-dbs-202604070914 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:14:59 Z

[8] Spain 6-Month Letras Auction up to 2.362% from previous 2.059% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-6-month-letras-auction-up-to-2362-from-previous-2059-202604070905 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:05:59 Z

[9] Gold: Central bank demand supports downside floor – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-central-bank-demand-supports-downside-floor-ing-202604070905 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:05:36 Z

[10] Singapore Foreign Reserves (MoM) climbed from previous 416.1B to 419.2B in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-foreign-reserves-mom-climbed-from-previous-4161b-to-4192b-in-march-202604070903 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:03:01 Z

[11] ECB: Focus on expectations as Oil shock bites – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-focus-on-expectations-as-oil-shock-bites-commerzbank-202604070853 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:53:43 Z

[12] Spain 12-Month Letras Auction rose from previous 2.121% to 2.611% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-12-month-letras-auction-rose-from-previous-2121-to-2611-202604070849 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:49:01 Z

[13] US: Fed data watch shapes rate outlook – BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-fed-data-watch-shapes-rate-outlook-bbh-202604070841 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:41:11 Z

[14] WTI Crude Oil steadies above $103.00 with Iran’s deadline looming URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-crude-oil-steadies-above-10300-with-irans-deadline-looming-202604070837 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:37:56 Z

[15] USD/INR falls ahead of Trump’s Iran deadline for Hormuz reopening URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-edges-lower-at-open-ahead-of-trumps-iran-deadline-202604070523 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:30:47 Z

[16] United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI below forecasts (51.2) in March: Actual (50.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-services-pmi-below-forecasts-512-in-march-actual-505-202604070830 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:30:01 Z

[17] United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI below expectations (51) in March: Actual (50.3) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-composite-pmi-below-expectations-51-in-march-actual-503-202604070830 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:30:01 Z

[18] Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence: -19.2 (April) vs previous -3.1 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-sentix-investor-confidence-192-april-vs-previous-31-202604070830 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:30:01 Z

[19] Brent: Conflict scenarios keep prices elevated – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-conflict-scenarios-keep-prices-elevated-societe-generale-202604070828 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:28:17 Z

[20] Dow Jones futures slip as traders adopt caution ahead of Trump’s Iran deadline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-slip-as-traders-adopt-caution-ahead-of-trumps-iran-deadline-202604070819 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:19:50 Z

[21] ECB’s Wunsch: I'm going to the meeting in April being open URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-wunsch-im-going-to-the-meeting-in-april-being-open-202604070815 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:15:21 Z

[22] DXY: Bracing for deadline risk – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-bracing-for-deadline-risk-ing-202604070813 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:13:26 Z

[23] China Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM) came in at $3.342T below forecasts ($3.4T) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-foreign-exchange-reserves-mom-came-in-at-3342t-below-forecasts-34t-in-march-202604070802 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:02:45 Z

[24] Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (50.1) in March: Actual (50.2) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-services-pmi-above-forecasts-501-in-march-actual-502-202604070800 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:00:08 Z

[25] Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (50.5) in March: Actual (50.7) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-composite-pmi-above-expectations-505-in-march-actual-507-202604070800 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 08:00:08 Z

[26] Germany HCOB Services PMI came in at 50.9 below forecasts (51.2) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-services-pmi-came-in-at-509-below-forecasts-512-in-march-202604070755 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:55:06 Z

[27] Germany HCOB Composite PMI in line with expectations (51.9) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-composite-pmi-in-line-with-expectations-519-in-march-202604070755 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:55:06 Z

[28] GBP/USD: Consolidation after failed downside break – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-consolidation-after-failed-downside-break-uob-202604070754 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:54:42 Z