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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 04:00:05

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.2)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (33.9% >50d, 49.4% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.503 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.13% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,041B | BTC: $68,645 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $658.75 46.49 27.9 $655.86 Bullish 0.64
QQQ $588.29 45.67 29.6 $580.91 Bullish 0.58
IWM $252.03 54.90 35.6 $252.48 Bearish 1.48

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 24.17 43.91 47.8 $11.00 Neutral 0.73
TNX 43.35 51.98 47.9 - - -
GLD $427.90 37.96 55.8 $403.82 Bullish 0.62
DXY 100.00 52.67 48.0 - - -
SLV $65.98 38.53 29.4 $63.41 Bullish 0.51

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.33%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.00
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,582,539
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,382,960
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.13% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.09%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 33.9% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.4%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B
  • BTC-USD: $68,645 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.503
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.75B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.43%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-1.8% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.43 (-1.2% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.07 (+2.4% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Ascending 20-day EMA supports more upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-ascending-20-day-ema-supports-more-upside-202604070752 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:52:19 Z

[2] Equities: Markets price future Middle East de-escalation – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-markets-price-future-middle-east-de-escalation-danske-bank-202604070750 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:50:30 Z

[3] France HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (48.3) in March: Actual (48.8) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-services-pmi-above-forecasts-483-in-march-actual-488-202604070750 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:50:06 Z

[4] France HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.8, above forecasts (48.3) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-composite-pmi-came-in-at-488-above-forecasts-483-in-march-202604070750 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:50:06 Z

[5] EUR/JPY appreciates on Yen weakness, nearing March highs at 184.75 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-appreciates-on-yen-weakness-nearing-march-highs-at-18475-202604070749 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:49:44 Z

[6] Italy HCOB Services PMI below forecasts (51) in March: Actual (48.8) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-hcob-services-pmi-below-forecasts-51-in-march-actual-488-202604070745 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:45:00 Z

[7] US Dollar Index holds near 100.00 on Iran war fears, Trump deadline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-holds-near-10000-on-iran-war-fears-trump-deadline-202604070744 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:44:03 Z

[8] Oil: War-driven supply risks and security fractures – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-war-driven-supply-risks-and-security-fractures-rabobank-202604070737 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:37:55 Z

[9] Gold sticks to modest losses on firmer USD; Trump's Iran deal deadline looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-remains-depressed-as-hormuz-standoff-supports-usd-amid-hawkish-fed-rate-bets-202604070329 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:37:01 Z

[10] Forex Today: Markets remain cautious as Trump's deadline approaches URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-markets-remain-cautious-as-trumps-deadline-approaches-202604070733 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:33:36 Z

[11] CAD: A strong hedge against energy risks – BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cad-a-strong-hedge-against-energy-risks-bbh-202604070727 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:27:01 Z

[12] Netflix (NFLX) short term Elliott Wave bullish sequence targets $116.40 [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netflix-nflx-short-term-elliott-wave-bullish-sequence-targets-11640-video-202604070716 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:16:46 Z

[13] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Struggles above YTD low, around 0.5700 amid geopolitical risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-struggles-above-ytd-low-around-05700-amid-geopolitical-risks-202604070715 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:15:09 Z

[14] Spain HCOB Services PMI came in at 53.3, above expectations (50.8) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-hcob-services-pmi-came-in-at-533-above-expectations-508-in-march-202604070715 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:15:00 Z

[15] USD: De-escalation seen softening Dollar trend – OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-de-escalation-seen-softening-dollar-trend-ocbc-202604070711 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:11:01 Z

[16] GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls broke the 211.50 resistance area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-analysis-bulls-broke-the-21150-resistance-area-202604070707 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:07:36 Z

[17] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Tests 1.3250 near nine-day EMA barrier URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-tests-13250-near-nine-day-ema-barrier-202604070703 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:03:47 Z

[18] Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves increased to 721B in March from previous 710B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-foreign-currency-reserves-increased-to-721b-in-march-from-previous-710b-202604070701 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:01:19 Z

[19] Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) up to 5.4% in March from previous 1.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-wholesale-prices-nsa-yoy-up-to-54-in-march-from-previous-11-202604070700 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:00:21 Z

[20] Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) increased to 3.9% in March from previous 0.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-wholesale-prices-nsa-mom-increased-to-39-in-march-from-previous-07-202604070700 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 07:00:21 Z

[21] Canadian Dollar declines as Trump's Iran deadline jitters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-declines-as-trumps-iran-deadline-jitters-202604070659 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 06:59:58 Z

[22] Oil: Supply risks and marginal flow relief – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-supply-risks-and-marginal-flow-relief-mufg-202604070659 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 06:59:26 Z

[23] USD/INR drops ahead of Trump’s deadline to Iran for Hormuz reopening URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-edges-lower-at-open-ahead-of-trumps-iran-deadline-202604070523 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 06:56:57 Z

[24] AUD/USD: Capped rebound within broader range – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-capped-rebound-within-broader-range-uob-202604070647 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 06:47:34 Z

[25] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades almost flat above $72 as Trump’s Iran deadline is in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-trades-almost-flat-above-72-as-trumps-iran-deadline-is-in-focus-202604070643 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 06:43:28 Z

[26] RBNZ: Seen on hold as war clouds outlook – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-seen-on-hold-as-war-clouds-outlook-commerzbank-202604070632 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 06:32:24 Z

[27] EUR/USD hovers above 1.1520 with Trump’s deadline on Iran approaching URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-hovers-above-11520-with-trumps-deadline-on-iran-approaching-202604070625 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 06:25:04 Z

[28] Oil: Middle East tensions keep Brent elevated – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-middle-east-tensions-keep-brent-elevated-danske-bank-202604070613 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 06:13:03 Z

[29] USD/CHF gains ground to near 0.8000 on Fed-SNB policy divergence URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-gains-ground-to-near-08000-on-fed-snb-policy-divergence-202604070610 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 06:10:06 Z