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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-07 00:00:06

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.2)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (33.9% >50d, 49.4% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.503 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.13% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,041B | BTC: $68,763 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $658.75 46.49 27.9 $655.86 Bullish 0.64
QQQ $588.29 45.67 29.6 $580.91 Bullish 0.58
IWM $252.03 54.90 35.6 $252.48 Bearish 1.48

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 24.17 43.91 47.8 $11.00 Neutral 0.73
TNX 43.35 51.98 47.9 - - -
GLD $427.90 37.96 55.8 $403.82 Bullish 0.62
DXY 100.00 52.67 48.0 - - -
SLV $65.98 38.53 29.4 $63.41 Bullish 0.51

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.33%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.00
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,582,539
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,382,960
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.13% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.09%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 33.9% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.4%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B
  • BTC-USD: $68,763 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.503
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.75B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.43%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-1.8% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.43 (-1.2% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.07 (+2.4% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (8):

[1] Gold remains depressed as Hormuz standoff supports USD amid hawkish Fed rate bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-remains-depressed-as-hormuz-standoff-supports-usd-amid-hawkish-fed-rate-bets-202604070329 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 03:29:17 Z

[2] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates around 1.1530 in countdown to Trump’s deadline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-consolidates-around-11530-in-countdown-to-trumps-deadline-202604070323 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 03:23:33 Z

[3] Pound Sterling weakens as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-weakens-as-safe-haven-demand-lifts-us-dollar-202604070257 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 02:57:45 Z

[4] US Dollar Index gathers strength above 100.00 on heightened uncertainty in the Middle East URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-gathers-strength-above-10000-on-heightened-uncertainty-in-the-middle-east-202604070243 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 02:43:43 Z

[5] NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5700 amid Middle East tensions, traders await RBNZ rate decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-weakens-to-near-05700-amid-middle-east-tensions-traders-await-rbnz-rate-decision-202604070159 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:59:18 Z

[6] Canadian Dollar declines despite rising oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-declines-despite-rising-oil-prices-202604070158 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:58:15 Z

[7] Iran warns Trump to surrender in 20 hours or allies face "palaeolithic age" URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-warns-trump-to-surrender-in-20-hours-or-allies-face-palaeolithic-age-202604070154 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:54:42 Z

[8] Japanese Yen slides after soft Household Spending data; USD/JPY eyes 160.00 mark URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-slides-after-soft-household-spending-data-usd-jpy-eyes-16000-mark-202604070152 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:52:07 Z