← Archive

2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-06 22:00:05

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.2)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (33.9% >50d, 49.4% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.503 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.13% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,041B | BTC: $68,397 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.99%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $658.75 46.49 27.9 $655.86 Bullish 0.64
QQQ $588.29 45.67 29.6 $580.91 Bullish 0.58
IWM $252.03 54.90 35.6 $252.48 Bearish 1.48

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 24.17 43.91 47.8 $11.00 Neutral 0.73
TNX 43.35 51.98 47.9 - - -
GLD $427.90 37.96 55.8 $403.82 Bullish 0.62
DXY 100.00 52.67 48.0 - - -
SLV $65.98 38.53 29.4 $63.41 Bullish 0.51

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.33%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.00
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.68
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,582,539
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,382,960
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.13% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.09%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 33.9% (of 501)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.4%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B
  • BTC-USD: $68,397 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.503
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.75B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.99%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.43%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-1.8% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.43 (-1.2% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.07 (+2.4% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (11):

[1] Australia ANZ Job Advertisements: -3.1% (March) vs previous 3.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-anz-job-advertisements-31-march-vs-previous-32-202604070131 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:31:48 Z

[2] Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) climbed from previous 3.6% to 4.3% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-td-mi-inflation-gauge-yoy-climbed-from-previous-36-to-43-in-march-202604070121 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:21:10 Z

[3] New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price declined to 4.1% in March from previous 4.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-anz-commodity-price-declined-to-41-in-march-from-previous-42-202604070117 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:17:11 Z

[4] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8854 vs. 6.8929 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68854-vs-68929-previous-202604070115 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:15:57 Z

[5] Australian Dollar steadies as traders brace for Trump’s Iran deadline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-steadies-as-traders-brace-for-trumps-iran-deadline-202604070111 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:11:53 Z

[6] Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) increased to 1.3% in March from previous -0.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-td-mi-inflation-gauge-mom-increased-to-13-in-march-from-previous-02-202604070103 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:03:47 Z

[7] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates around $73.00/200-period EMA pivotal hurdle URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-consolidates-around-7300-200-period-ema-pivotal-hurdle-202604070101 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:01:53 Z

[8] WTI edges higher above $103.50 as Trump intensifies Iran's infrastructure threats URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-edges-higher-above-10350-as-trump-intensifies-irans-infrastructure-threats-202604070054 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:54:37 Z

[9] EUR/USD steadies below 1.1550 with Iran tensions in focus
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-steadies-below-11550-with-iran-tensions-in-focus-202604070015 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:15:50 Z

[10] Ireland AIB Services PMI: 50.7 (March) vs previous 51.8 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-aib-services-pmi-507-march-vs-previous-518-202604070001 Published: Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:01:00 Z

[11] Japan’s Katayama: Fluctuating oil prices cause high volatility in financial and FX markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-fluctuating-oil-prices-cause-high-volatility-in-financial-and-fx-markets-202604062359 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 23:59:16 Z