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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-06 04:00:12

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.2)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.2% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.503 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 0.00% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $17,041B ◆ | BTC: $69,141 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.96%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $655.92 46.49 27.9 $650.97 Neutral 1.02
QQQ $584.80 45.67 29.6 $562.91 Neutral 0.81
IWM $251.20 54.90 35.6 $249.55 Bearish 1.63

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 23.87 43.91 47.8 $10.50 Bullish 0.55
TNX 43.13 51.98 47.9 - - -
GLD $429.79 37.96 55.8 $408.61 Bullish 0.42
DXY 100.03 47.28 50.4 - - -
SLV $65.81 38.53 29.4 $63.38 Bullish 0.63

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.31%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.03
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.78
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 0.00% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 0.00%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.2%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B ▲ (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B ◆
  • BTC-USD: $69,141 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.503
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.75B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.96%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-1.8% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.43 (-1.2% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.07 (+2.4% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (17):

[1] Iran acknowledges receiving US ceasefire proposal through Pakistan - Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-acknowledges-receiving-ceasefire-proposal-through-pakistan-reuters-202604060742 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 07:42:14 Z

[2] Dow Jones futures recover recent losses as reports suggest US-Iran ceasefire talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-recover-recent-losses-as-reports-suggest-us-iran-ceasefire-talks-202604060726 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 07:26:58 Z

[3] ECB: Recovery outlook and rate path – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-recovery-outlook-and-rate-path-societe-generale-202604060726 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 07:26:02 Z

[4] US-Iran receive plan to end hostilities, discuss two-tier deal - Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-iran-recieves-plan-to-end-hostilities-discuss-two-tier-deal-reuters-202604060710 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 07:10:52 Z

[5] Forex Today: Middle East uncertainty keeps investors on edge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-middle-east-uncertainty-keeps-investors-on-edge-202604060710 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 07:10:13 Z

[6] Australian Dollar holds firm on US-Iran ceasefire optimism
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-firm-on-us-iran-ceasefire-optimism-202604060705 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 07:05:27 Z

[7] EUR/CAD holds gains above 1.6050 as oil prices eases URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-cad-holds-gains-above-16050-as-oil-prices-eases-202604060703 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 07:03:00 Z

[8] Spain Unemployment Change below expectations (10.3K) in March: Actual (-22.9K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-unemployment-change-below-expectations-103k-in-march-actual-229k-202604060702 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 07:02:43 Z

[9] USD/JPY: Overextension near 160 raises BoJ risk – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-overextension-near-160-raises-boj-risk-dbs-202604060657 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 06:57:09 Z

[10] USD/INR rises as rallying oil prices drag Indian Rupee URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-rises-as-middle-east-risks-drag-indian-rupee-202604060510 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 06:56:03 Z

[11] Gold struggles to build on intraday bounce, holds steady around $4,650 amid mixed cues URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-sticks-to-negative-bias-amid-rising-rate-hike-bets-firmer-us-dollar-202604060318 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 06:50:45 Z

[12] Eurozone: Inflation and fiscal shifts shape rates – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-inflation-and-fiscal-shifts-shape-rates-bny-202604060635 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 06:35:10 Z

[13] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Ascending Triangle formation reflects broader consolidation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-ascending-triangle-formation-reflects-broader-consolidation-202604060625 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 06:25:12 Z

[14] WTI eases below $103.50 as US, Iran reportedly seeking 45-day ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-eases-below-10350-as-us-iran-reportedly-seeking-45-day-ceasefire-202604060615 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 06:15:38 Z

[15] Brent: War-driven supply shock supports prices – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-war-driven-supply-shock-supports-prices-commerzbank-202604060609 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 06:09:35 Z

[16] EUR/GBP eases to levels near 0.8700 amid mild risk-off markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-eases-to-levels-near-08700-amid-mild-risk-off-markets-202604060603 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 06:03:34 Z

[17] Iran Parliament Speaker condemns Trump threats over energy infrastructure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-parliament-speaker-condemns-trump-threats-over-energy-infrastructure-202604060559 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:59:13 Z