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2026-W15

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-06 02:00:12

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.2)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.5% >50d, 49.2% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.503 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 82 | VIX/MOVE: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 0.00% (N/A) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $69,174 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.96%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $655.92 46.49 27.9 $650.97 Neutral 1.02
QQQ $584.80 45.67 29.6 $562.91 Neutral 0.81
IWM $251.20 54.90 35.6 $249.55 Bearish 1.63

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 23.87 43.91 47.8 $10.50 Bullish 0.55
TNX 43.13 51.98 47.9 - - -
GLD $429.79 37.96 55.8 $408.61 Bullish 0.42
DXY 100.03 47.28 50.4 - - -
SLV $65.81 38.53 29.4 $63.38 Bullish 0.63

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.31%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.03
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.78
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 0.00% (N/A)
  • BBB Spread: 0.00%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.5% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.2%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $N/AB
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
  • BTC-USD: $69,174 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.503
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.75B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.96%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.2% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.39 (-1.8% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.43 (-1.2% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.07 (+2.4% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-22
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (23):

[1] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD wobbles around $72.50 in countdown to Trump’s ultimatum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-wobbles-around-7250-in-countdown-to-trumps-ultimatum-202604060534 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:34:00 Z

[2] NZD/USD rebounds from four-month low; retakes 0.5700 as ceasefire talks weigh on USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-rebounds-from-four-month-low-retakes-05700-as-ceasefire-talks-weigh-on-usd-202604060532 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:32:51 Z

[3] Canadian Dollar strengthens on US–Iran ceasefire hopes
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-strengthens-on-us-iran-ceasefire-hopes-202604060516 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:16:14 Z

[4] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Maintains position above 100.00, nine-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-maintains-position-above-10000-nine-day-ema-202604060512 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:12:19 Z

[5] USD/INR rises as Middle East risks drag Indian Rupee URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-rises-as-middle-east-risks-drag-indian-rupee-202604060510 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:10:03 Z

[6] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604060505 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:05:45 Z

[7] Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 57.5% in February from previous 6.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-retail-sales-mom-increased-to-575-in-february-from-previous-61-202604060501 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:01:12 Z

[8] Singapore Retail Sales (MoM): -4.1% (February) vs previous 6.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-retail-sales-mom-41-february-vs-previous-61-202604060500 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:00:59 Z

[9] India HSBC Services PMI above expectations (57.4) in March: Actual (57.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-services-pmi-above-expectations-574-in-march-actual-575-202604060500 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:00:44 Z

[10] India HSBC Composite PMI came in at 57, above expectations (56.5) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-composite-pmi-came-in-at-57-above-expectations-565-in-march-202604060500 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:00:08 Z

[11] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604060500 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:00:07 Z

[12] Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 8.3% in February from previous -0.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-retail-sales-yoy-increased-to-83-in-february-from-previous-04-202604060500 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:00:02 Z

[13] Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) dipped from previous 6.1% to -4.1% in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-retail-sales-mom-dipped-from-previous-61-to-41-in-february-202604060500 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 05:00:01 Z

[14] Gold bounces off $4,600 as push for US-Iran ceasefire weigh on USD; upside seems capped URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-sticks-to-negative-bias-amid-rising-rate-hike-bets-firmer-us-dollar-202604060318 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:56:37 Z

[15] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604060455 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:55:29 Z

[16] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604060445 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:45:05 Z

[17] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD gains some positive traction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-gains-some-positive-traction-202604060439 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:39:24 Z

[18] USD/CHF holds gains above 0.8000 despite reports of US-Iran ceasefire talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-holds-gains-above-08000-despite-reports-of-us-iran-ceasefire-talks-202604060436 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:36:29 Z

[19] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604060435 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:35:20 Z

[20] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Retakes 1.3200; bearish bias persists amid geopolitical risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-retakes-13200-bearish-bias-persists-amid-geopolitical-risks-202604060431 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:31:40 Z

[21] EUR/USD inches higher above 1.1500 amid hopes on US-Iran ceasefire talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-inches-higher-above-11500-amid-hopes-on-us-iran-ceasefire-talks-202604060431 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:31:08 Z

[22] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604060430 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:30:20 Z

[23] US, Iran discuss 45-day ceasefire as mediators push for deal ahead of deadline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-iran-discuss-45-day-ceasefire-as-mediators-push-for-deal-ahead-of-deadline-202604060402 Published: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 04:02:22 Z