Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-03 08:00:09
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.25)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.1% >50d, 49.1% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.487 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 84 | VIX/MOVE: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.16% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.00% (N/A)
- Global Liquidity: $17,041B | BTC: $67,001 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.96%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $655.64 | 44.32 | 28.4 | $655.60 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| QQQ | $584.56 | 43.76 | 31.1 | $564.00 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| IWM | $251.02 | 52.28 | 36.0 | $217.50 | Bearish | 1.56 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 23.87 | 44.84 | 49.7 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.65 |
| TNX | 43.13 | 53.23 | 47.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $429.72 | 38.66 | 55.4 | $406.78 | Bullish | 0.49 |
| DXY | 100.00 | 47.04 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $65.95 | 36.77 | 28.9 | $64.41 | Bullish | 0.41 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.89
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 84.41
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,367,040
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,167,876
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.53 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.16% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.10%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.00% (N/A)
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.1% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B
- BTC-USD: $67,001 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.96%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.42 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.11 (+2.7% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] US March Nonfarm Payrolls expected to rise by 60K as markets assess Fed rate outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-nonfarm-payrolls-expected-to-rise-by-60k-in-march-202604030400 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 11:45:00 Z
[2] Euro is looking for direction with all eyes on US Nonfarm Payrolls data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-steadies-below-11550-awaiting-us-payrolls-data-202604030904 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 11:33:41 Z
[3] India FX Reserves, USD down to $688.06B in March 23 from previous $698.35B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-down-to-68806b-in-march-23-from-previous-69835b-202604031130 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 11:30:07 Z
[4] AUD/USD eases towards 0.6900 heading into the US NFP release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-eases-towards-06900-heading-into-the-us-nfp-release-202604031107 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 11:07:17 Z
[5] GBP/USD trades slightly higher in thin holiday trade ahead of US NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-trades-slightly-higher-in-thin-holiday-trade-ahead-of-us-nfp-202604031058 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 10:58:40 Z
[6] NZD/USD hovers above mid-term lows at 0.5700 with US NFP on tap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-hovers-above-mid-term-lows-at-05700-with-us-nfp-on-tap-202604031030 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 10:30:10 Z
[7] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears remain capped above the $4,600 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-bears-remain-capped-above-the-4-600-area-202604030953 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 09:53:50 Z