Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-03 04:00:02
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.25)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.1% >50d, 49.1% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.487 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 84 | VIX/MOVE: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.16% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.00% (N/A)
- Global Liquidity: N/A ◆ | BTC: $67,034 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.96%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $655.64 | 44.32 | 28.4 | $655.60 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| QQQ | $584.56 | 43.76 | 31.1 | $564.00 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| IWM | $251.02 | 52.28 | 36.0 | $217.50 | Bearish | 1.56 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 23.87 | 44.84 | 49.7 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.65 |
| TNX | 43.13 | 53.23 | 47.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $429.72 | 38.66 | 55.4 | $406.78 | Bullish | 0.49 |
| DXY | 100.00 | 47.04 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $65.95 | 36.77 | 28.9 | $64.41 | Bullish | 0.41 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.89
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 84.41
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,367,040
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,167,876
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.53 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.16% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.10%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.00% (N/A)
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.1% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A ◆
- BTC-USD: $67,034 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.96%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.42 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.11 (+2.7% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] WTI remains stronger near $104 as Trump threats fuel supply fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-remains-stronger-near-104-as-trump-threats-fuel-supply-fears-202604030726 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:26:01 Z
[2] EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Euro stalls below the 0.8740 resistance area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-analysis-euro-stalls-below-the-08740-resistance-area-202604030713 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:13:43 Z
[3] Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 30.87%, below expectations (31.4%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-consumer-price-index-yoy-registered-at-3087-below-expectations-314-in-march-202604030701 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:01:16 Z
[4] Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (2.32%) in March: Actual (1.94%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-consumer-price-index-mom-below-forecasts-232-in-march-actual-194-202604030700 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:00:34 Z
[5] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Gathers strength to near 184.00, bullish bias persists above 100-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-gathers-strength-to-near-18400-bullish-bias-persists-above-100-day-ema-202604030700 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:00:20 Z
[6] US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show 60K job gains in March as markets assess Fed rate path URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-nonfarm-payrolls-expected-to-rise-by-60k-in-march-202604030400 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:00:00 Z
[7] Japanese Yen struggles due to BoJ’s rate hike uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-struggles-due-to-bojs-rate-hike-uncertainty-202604030658 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 06:58:22 Z
[8] France Industrial Output (MoM) below forecasts (0%) in February: Actual (-0.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-industrial-output-mom-below-forecasts-0-in-february-actual-07-202604030645 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 06:45:01 Z
[9] USD/CAD holds gains above 1.3900 with all eyes on US jobs data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-holds-gains-above-13900-with-all-eyes-on-us-jobs-data-202604030626 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 06:26:33 Z
[10] Forex Today: Markets turn cautious, all eyes on US NFP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-markets-turn-cautious-all-eyes-on-us-nfp-data-202604030624 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 06:24:54 Z
[11] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds toward 1.3250 near nine-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-rebounds-toward-13250-near-nine-day-ema-202604030621 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 06:21:45 Z
[12] Analyzing the Energy Sector's strong earnings outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/analyzing-the-energy-sectors-strong-earnings-outlook-202604030619 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 06:19:54 Z
[13] USD/CHF stays near 0.8000 due thin trading on Good Friday URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-stays-near-08000-due-thin-trading-on-good-friday-202604030609 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 06:09:44 Z
[14] Russia S&P Global Services PMI declined to 49.5 in March from previous 51.3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-sp-global-services-pmi-declined-to-495-in-march-from-previous-513-202604030600 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 06:00:01 Z