Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-03 00:00:06
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.25)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (30.1% >50d, 49.1% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,827B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.487 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 84 | VIX/MOVE: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.16% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.00% (N/A)
- Global Liquidity: $17,041B ◆ | BTC: $66,575 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.96%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $655.64 | 44.32 | 28.4 | $655.60 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| QQQ | $584.56 | 43.76 | 31.1 | $564.00 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| IWM | $251.02 | 52.28 | 36.0 | $217.50 | Bearish | 1.56 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 23.87 | 44.84 | 49.7 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.65 |
| TNX | 43.13 | 53.23 | 47.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $429.72 | 38.66 | 55.4 | $406.78 | Bullish | 0.49 |
| DXY | 100.00 | 47.04 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $65.95 | 36.77 | 28.9 | $64.41 | Bullish | 0.41 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.89
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 84.41
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,367,040
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,167,876
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.53 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.16% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.10%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.00% (N/A)
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 30.1% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6675.3B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $847.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,827B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B ▲ (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $17,041B ◆
- BTC-USD: $66,575 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.96%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.42 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.11 (+2.7% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] NZD/USD declines to near 0.5700 on weak Chinese PMI, US NFP data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-decline-to-near-05700-on-weak-chinese-pmi-us-nfp-data-looms-202604030241 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 02:41:47 Z
[2] WTI trades near $104.00 after 10% surge on Trump's Iran threats URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-trades-near-10400-after-10-surge-on-trumps-iran-threats-202604030229 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 02:29:15 Z
[3] Japanese Yen flat lines amid persistent tensions in the Middle East URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-flat-lines-amid-persistent-tensions-in-the-middle-east-202604030155 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 01:55:53 Z
[4] Australian Dollar moves little following China’s Services PMI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-advances-despite-increased-risk-aversion-202604030134 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 01:50:30 Z
[5] China’s RatingDog Services PMI declines to 52.1 in March vs. 53.7 expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinas-ratingdog-services-pmi-declines-to-521-in-march-vs-537-expected-202604030145 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 01:45:53 Z
[6] China RatingDog Services PMI came in at 52.1 below forecasts (53.7) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-ratingdog-services-pmi-came-in-at-521-below-forecasts-537-in-march-202604030145 Published: Fri, 03 Apr 2026 01:45:01 Z