Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-02 13:30:35
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.21)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (29.1% >50d, 48.9% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,781B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.487 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 90 | VIX/MOVE: 0.28 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.16% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,995B | BTC: $67,285 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.95%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $654.62 ▲ | 44.32 | 28.4 | $655.70 | Bearish | 1.34 |
| QQQ | $583.54 ▼ | 43.76 | 31.1 | $583.79 | Bearish | 1.36 |
| IWM | $250.45 ▲ | 52.28 | 36.0 | $215.00 | Bearish | 1.30 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 25.41 ▼ | 44.84 | 49.7 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.60 |
| TNX | 43.07 ▲ | 53.23 | 47.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $427.32 ▼ | 38.66 | 55.4 | $408.40 | Bullish | 0.49 |
| DXY | 99.95 ▼ | 46.59 ▼ | 45.3 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $65.65 ▼ | 36.77 | 28.9 | $64.39 | Neutral | 0.87 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.70 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.95 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 ▼ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 90.19
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,540,507 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,636,014 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.43 ▼ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.16% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.10%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 29.1% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 48.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,781B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,995B
- BTC-USD: $67,285 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.95%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.42 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.11 (+2.7% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-22
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] TRY: Lira seen on steady depreciation despite CPI – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/try-lira-seen-on-steady-depreciation-despite-cpi-commerzbank-202604021727 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 17:27:48 Z
[2] US President Trump presses Iran to make a deal after bridge strike video URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-trump-presses-iran-to-make-a-deal-after-bridge-strike-video-202604021722 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 17:22:18 Z
[3] Fear-hope cycle picks up speed, and Dow Jones futures are paying the price URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fear-hope-cycle-picks-up-speed-and-dow-jones-futures-are-paying-the-price-202604021712 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 17:12:09 Z
[4] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: Slides toward 1.3200 as Trump threats boost US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-slides-toward-13200-as-trump-threats-boost-us-dollar-202604021709 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 17:09:37 Z
[5] Indonesia: Inflation and energy policy risks – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-inflation-and-energy-policy-risks-dbs-202604021708 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 17:08:00 Z
[6] USD/JPY holds gains as Trump escalates Iran war, Hormuz headlines cap upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-holds-gains-as-trump-escalates-iran-war-hormuz-headlines-cap-upside-202604021657 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 16:57:42 Z