Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-02 09:32:19
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Bullish ◆ (Score: 0.21)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (23.1% ▼ >50d, 45.8% ▼ >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,781B (Expanding ◆)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.487 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 90 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.28% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,995B ◆ | BTC: $66,063 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.90% ▼, Hit Rate 75% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $647.16 ▲ | 44.32 | 28.4 | $655.61 | Bearish | 2.60 |
| QQQ | $574.84 ▲ | 43.76 | 31.1 | $583.84 | Bearish | 2.04 |
| IWM | $245.28 ▲ | 52.28 | 36.0 | $195.00 | Bearish | 4.60 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 27.05 ▼ | 44.84 | 49.7 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.50 |
| TNX | 43.40 ▼ | 53.23 | 47.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $423.02 ▲ | 38.66 | 55.4 | $406.61 | Bullish | 0.66 |
| DXY | 100.13 ▲ | 48.10 ▲ | 46.2 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $63.77 ▲ | 36.77 | 28.9 | $61.59 | Neutral | 1.01 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.34% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 100.13 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 90.19
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 35,598 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 47,742 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.34 ▲ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging) ◆)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.28% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.13%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 23.1% ▼ (of 484)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 45.8% ▼
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,781B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,995B ◆
- BTC-USD: $66,063 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.90% ▼
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 75%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.42 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.11 (+2.7% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] USD: Yield spreads and policy risk cap upside – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-yield-spreads-and-policy-risk-cap-upside-mufg-202604021326 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 13:26:08 Z
[2] Gold retreats from two-week highs amid USD, yields rebound after Trump remarks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retreats-from-two-week-highs-amid-usd-yields-rebound-after-trump-remarks-202604021221 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 13:20:08 Z
[3] USD/MXN: Trade resilience supports Peso – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-mxn-trade-resilience-supports-peso-commerzbank-202604021313 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 13:13:15 Z
[4] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Holds in a tight range between 50-day and 100-day SMAs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-holds-in-a-tight-range-between-50-day-and-100-day-smas-202604021301 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 13:01:59 Z
[5] Singapore Manufacturing PMI: 50.5 (March) vs previous 50.6 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-manufacturing-pmi-505-march-vs-previous-506-202604021301 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 13:01:14 Z
[6] INR: RBI Clamps down on NDFs as structural headwinds persist – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/inr-rbi-clamps-down-on-ndfs-as-structural-headwinds-persist-societe-generale-202604021301 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 13:01:00 Z
[7] Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $775.4B from previous $776.8B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-central-bank-reserves-down-to-7754b-from-previous-7768b-202604021300 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 13:00:51 Z