Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-02 09:01:02
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.0)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (27.5% >50d, 49.3% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.487 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 90 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.28% ▲ (Watchful ◆) | 2s10s: 0.00% ▼ (N/A ◆)
- Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $66,062 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.96%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $645.50 ▲ | 44.32 | 28.4 | $655.64 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| QQQ | $573.05 ▲ | 43.76 | 31.1 | $583.79 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| IWM | $244.75 ▲ | 52.28 | 36.0 | $212.50 | Bearish | 1.82 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 27.71 ▲ | 44.84 | 49.7 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.67 |
| TNX | 43.60 ▲ | 53.23 | 47.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $421.11 ▼ | 38.66 | 55.4 | $416.14 | Bullish | 0.41 |
| DXY | 100.10 ▼ | 47.86 ▼ | 46.0 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $63.10 ▼ | 36.77 | 28.9 | $61.82 | Bullish | 0.57 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.36% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.75 ▲ (Normal)
- DXY: 100.10 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 90.19
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.28% ▲ (Watchful ◆)
- BBB Spread: 1.13%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.00% ▼ (N/A ◆)
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 27.5% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
- Liquidity Regime: N/A
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
- BTC-USD: $66,062 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.96%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.42 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.11 (+2.7% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (16):
[1] CHF: Small wins support firm currency – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chf-small-wins-support-firm-currency-rabobank-202604021239 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:39:43 Z
[2] US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 202K last week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-dropped-to-202k-last-week-202604021234 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:34:13 Z
[3] United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.841M above expectations (1.84M) in March 20 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-registered-at-1841m-above-expectations-184m-in-march-20-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:48 Z
[4] United States Goods Trade Balance dipped from previous $-81.8B to $-84.6B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-trade-balance-dipped-from-previous-818b-to-846b-in-february-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:32 Z
[5] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average declined to 207.75K in March 27 from previous 210.5K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-declined-to-20775k-in-march-27-from-previous-2105k-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:03 Z
[6] United States Initial Jobless Claims below expectations (212K) in March 27: Actual (202K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-below-expectations-212k-in-march-27-actual-202k-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:03 Z
[7] Canada Imports increased to $72.05B in February from previous $66.13B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-imports-increased-to-7205b-in-february-from-previous-6613b-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:02 Z
[8] Canada International Merchandise Trade came in at $-5.74B below forecasts ($-2.3B) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-international-merchandise-trade-came-in-at-574b-below-forecasts-23b-in-february-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:01 Z
[9] Canada Exports increased to $66.31B in February from previous $62.48B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-exports-increased-to-6631b-in-february-from-previous-6248b-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:01 Z
[10] United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-57.3B, above expectations ($-59.2B) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-and-services-trade-balance-came-in-at-573b-above-expectations-592b-in-february-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:01 Z
[11] BoC: Dovish patience with geopolitical risks – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boc-dovish-patience-with-geopolitical-risks-td-securities-202604021227 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:27:24 Z
[12] Gold retreats from two-week highs amid USD, yields rebound after Trump remarks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retreats-from-two-week-highs-amid-usd-yields-rebound-after-trump-remarks-202604021221 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:21:25 Z
[13] CEE FX: Limited relief for regional currencies – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-limited-relief-for-regional-currencies-ing-202604021211 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:11:33 Z
[14] Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) registered at -0.7% above expectations (-1%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-industrial-output-yoy-registered-at-07-above-expectations-1-in-february-202604021200 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:00:34 Z
[15] Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) came in at 0.9%, above forecasts (0.7%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-industrial-output-mom-came-in-at-09-above-forecasts-07-in-february-202604021200 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:00:03 Z
[16] India: Growth trimmed as energy shock bites – Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-growth-trimmed-as-energy-shock-bites-standard-chartered-202604021159 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 11:59:40 Z