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2026-W14

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-02 09:01:02

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.0)
  • Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (27.5% >50d, 49.3% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: N/A (N/A)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.487 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 90 | VIX/MOVE: 0.31 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.28% ▲ (Watchful ◆) | 2s10s: 0.00% ▼ (N/A ◆)
  • Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $66,062 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.96%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $645.50 ▲ 44.32 28.4 $655.64 Neutral 1.00
QQQ $573.05 ▲ 43.76 31.1 $583.79 Neutral 1.00
IWM $244.75 ▲ 52.28 36.0 $212.50 Bearish 1.82

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 27.71 ▲ 44.84 49.7 $11.00 Bullish 0.67
TNX 43.60 ▲ 53.23 47.8 - - -
GLD $421.11 ▼ 38.66 55.4 $416.14 Bullish 0.41
DXY 100.10 ▼ 47.86 ▼ 46.0 ▼ - - -
SLV $63.10 ▼ 36.77 28.9 $61.82 Bullish 0.57

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.36% ▲
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.75 ▲ (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.10 ▼
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▼
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 ▲ (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 90.19
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.31 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.28% ▲ (Watchful ◆)
  • BBB Spread: 1.13%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.00% ▼ (N/A ◆)

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 27.5% (of 502)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.3%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $N/AB
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): N/A
  • Liquidity Regime: N/A
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$0B ▼ (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
  • BTC-USD: $66,062 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.96%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.42 (-1.5% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.11 (+2.7% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-21
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (16):

[1] CHF: Small wins support firm currency – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chf-small-wins-support-firm-currency-rabobank-202604021239 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:39:43 Z

[2] US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 202K last week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-dropped-to-202k-last-week-202604021234 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:34:13 Z

[3] United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.841M above expectations (1.84M) in March 20 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-registered-at-1841m-above-expectations-184m-in-march-20-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:48 Z

[4] United States Goods Trade Balance dipped from previous $-81.8B to $-84.6B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-trade-balance-dipped-from-previous-818b-to-846b-in-february-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:32 Z

[5] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average declined to 207.75K in March 27 from previous 210.5K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-declined-to-20775k-in-march-27-from-previous-2105k-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:03 Z

[6] United States Initial Jobless Claims below expectations (212K) in March 27: Actual (202K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-below-expectations-212k-in-march-27-actual-202k-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:03 Z

[7] Canada Imports increased to $72.05B in February from previous $66.13B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-imports-increased-to-7205b-in-february-from-previous-6613b-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:02 Z

[8] Canada International Merchandise Trade came in at $-5.74B below forecasts ($-2.3B) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-international-merchandise-trade-came-in-at-574b-below-forecasts-23b-in-february-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:01 Z

[9] Canada Exports increased to $66.31B in February from previous $62.48B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-exports-increased-to-6631b-in-february-from-previous-6248b-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:01 Z

[10] United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-57.3B, above expectations ($-59.2B) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-and-services-trade-balance-came-in-at-573b-above-expectations-592b-in-february-202604021230 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:30:01 Z

[11] BoC: Dovish patience with geopolitical risks – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boc-dovish-patience-with-geopolitical-risks-td-securities-202604021227 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:27:24 Z

[12] Gold retreats from two-week highs amid USD, yields rebound after Trump remarks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retreats-from-two-week-highs-amid-usd-yields-rebound-after-trump-remarks-202604021221 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:21:25 Z

[13] CEE FX: Limited relief for regional currencies – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cee-fx-limited-relief-for-regional-currencies-ing-202604021211 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:11:33 Z

[14] Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) registered at -0.7% above expectations (-1%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-industrial-output-yoy-registered-at-07-above-expectations-1-in-february-202604021200 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:00:34 Z

[15] Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) came in at 0.9%, above forecasts (0.7%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-industrial-output-mom-came-in-at-09-above-forecasts-07-in-february-202604021200 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:00:03 Z

[16] India: Growth trimmed as energy shock bites – Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-growth-trimmed-as-energy-shock-bites-standard-chartered-202604021159 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 11:59:40 Z