← Archive

2026-W14

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-02 06:00:04

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.0)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (27.5% >50d, 49.3% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,781B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.487 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 90 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.28% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,995B | BTC: $66,431 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +1.96%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $654.75 37.09 28.0 $646.01 Bullish 0.48
QQQ $583.87 35.75 30.5 $570.92 Bullish 0.32
IWM $249.56 45.24 37.0 $212.50 Bullish 0.50

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 24.54 51.76 50.8 $10.00 Neutral 1.07
TNX 43.19 56.70 47.8 - - -
GLD $439.40 32.33 59.5 $413.23 Bullish 0.16
DXY 99.51 48.19 46.5 - - -
SLV $68.23 35.17 33.6 $61.79 Bullish 0.40

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.32%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.51
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 90.19
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 872,789
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 1,179,387
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.35 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.28% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.13%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 27.5% (of 502)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.3%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,781B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,995B
  • BTC-USD: $66,431 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
  • Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +1.96%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.42 (-1.5% vs 30d)
  • GS: $16.11 (+2.7% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-21
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • No key economic prints today.

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (20):

[1] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604020934 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:34:41 Z

[2] USD: Data focus shifts to payrolls – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-data-focus-shifts-to-payrolls-societe-generale-202604020929 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:29:06 Z

[3] Dow Jones futures plunge as risk aversion increases after Trump’s comments URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-plunge-as-risk-aversion-increases-after-trumps-comments-202604020915 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:15:19 Z

[4] USD/INR declines RBI's squeeze measures support Indian Rupee URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-recovers-as-risks-of-prolong-middle-east-war-revives-202604020543 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:11:17 Z

[5] EUR/GBP: BoE Rate hike repricing supports gains – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-boe-rate-hike-repricing-supports-gains-commerzbank-202604020906 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:06:30 Z

[6] Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) dipped from previous 2.3% to 1.6% in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-retail-sales-nsa-yoy-dipped-from-previous-23-to-16-in-february-202604020904 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:04:21 Z

[7] Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) came in at 0% below forecasts (0.4%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-retail-sales-sa-mom-came-in-at-0-below-forecasts-04-in-february-202604020904 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:04:15 Z

[8] France 10-y Bond Auction rose from previous 3.39% to 3.73% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-10-y-bond-auction-rose-from-previous-339-to-373-202604020904 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:04:00 Z

[9] Turkey Exports climbed from previous $21.1B to $21.9B in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-exports-climbed-from-previous-211b-to-219b-in-march-202604020902 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:02:35 Z

[10] ECB's Panetta: Tensions in energy markets are a cause for concern for financial stability URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-panetta-tensions-in-energy-markets-are-a-cause-for-concern-for-financial-stability-202604020856 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:56:29 Z

[11] USD: Risk-off tone supports Dollar – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-risk-off-tone-supports-dollar-ing-202604020844 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:44:56 Z

[12] US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies beyond 100.00 as hopes of peace in Iran fade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-rallies-beyond-10000-as-hopes-of-peace-in-iran-fade-202604020841 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:41:19 Z

[13] EUR/JPY trades flat around 184.00 as investors seek clarity on ECB-BoJ policy outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-trades-flat-around-18400-as-investors-seek-clarity-on-ecb-boj-policy-outlook-202604020837 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:37:00 Z

[14] WTI rises above 101.00 as Trump’s Iran stance fuels supply fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-rises-above-10100-as-trumps-iran-stance-fuels-supply-fears-202604020836 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:36:07 Z

[15] Gold pares intraday losses and moves closer to $4,650; not out of the woods yet URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retreats-sharply-from-two-week-top-4-800-as-trumps-iran-comments-boost-usd-202604020357 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:29:18 Z

[16] Oil: War risks and Strait tensions – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-war-risks-and-strait-tensions-rabobank-202604020819 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:19:16 Z

[17] Brazil Fipe's IPC Inflation climbed from previous 0.25% to 0.59% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-fipes-ipc-inflation-climbed-from-previous-025-to-059-in-march-202604020801 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:01:54 Z

[18] ECB Simkus: Too early to say what we'll need to do in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-simkus-too-early-to-say-what-well-need-to-do-in-april-202604020753 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:53:11 Z

[19] USD/INR: Regulatory squeeze supports Rupee – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-regulatory-squeeze-supports-rupee-mufg-202604020752 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:52:36 Z

[20] EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Euro stands tall above 0.8700 in risk-off markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-analysis-euro-stands-tall-above-08700-in-risk-off-markets-202604020750 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:50:53 Z