Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-02 04:00:10
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.0)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (27.5% >50d, 49.3% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,781B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.487 (Strong Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 90 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.28% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,995B | BTC: $66,893 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.96%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $654.75 | 37.09 | 28.0 | $646.01 | Bullish | 0.48 |
| QQQ | $583.87 | 35.75 | 30.5 | $570.92 | Bullish | 0.32 |
| IWM | $249.56 | 45.24 | 37.0 | $212.50 | Bullish | 0.50 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 24.54 | 51.76 | 50.8 | $10.00 | Neutral | 1.07 |
| TNX | 43.19 | 56.70 | 47.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $439.40 | 32.33 | 59.5 | $413.23 | Bullish | 0.16 |
| DXY | 99.51 | 48.19 | 46.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.23 | 35.17 | 33.6 | $61.79 | Bullish | 0.40 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.32%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.51
- Growth vs Value: 0.89
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 90.19
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 872,789
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,179,387
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.35 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.28% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.13%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 27.5% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $2.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,781B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,655B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,995B
- BTC-USD: $66,893 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B
- Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.96%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (-0.2% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.42 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $16.11 (+2.7% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- No key economic prints today.
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (25):
[1] RBNZ to hold OCR steady at 2.25% in meeting on April 8 – Reuters poll URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-to-hold-ocr-steady-at-225-in-meeting-on-april-8-reuters-poll-202604020742 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:42:33 Z
[2] US: Inflation upturn with oil shock – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-inflation-upturn-with-oil-shock-commerzbank-202604020740 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:40:40 Z
[3] USD/INR recovers as revived Middle East war risks boost US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-recovers-as-risks-of-prolong-middle-east-war-revives-202604020543 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:33:19 Z
[4] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds losses near 0.5700, four-month lows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-holds-losses-near-05700-four-month-lows-202604020730 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:30:31 Z
[5] Stock markets correct to the downside over night URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/stock-markets-correct-to-the-downside-over-night-202604020727 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:27:33 Z
[6] Forex Today: US Dollar rebounds as mood sours after Trump remarks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-rebounds-as-mood-sours-after-trump-remarks-202604020722 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:22:32 Z
[7] USD/CHF hesitates at 0.8000 following Swiss inflation figures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-hesitates-at-08000-following-swiss-inflation-figures-202604020718 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:18:27 Z
[8] BoE: Bailey challenges rate hike pricing – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boe-bailey-challenges-rate-hike-pricing-ing-202604020717 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:17:46 Z
[9] EUR/USD resumes decline as early Mideast ceasefire hopes fade URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-resumes-decline-as-early-mideast-ceasefire-hopes-fade-202604020716 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:16:59 Z
[10] GBP/JPY bounces off daily low; keeps the red below 211.00 on Middle East tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-bounces-off-daily-low-keeps-the-red-below-21100-on-middle-east-tensions-202604020708 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:08:03 Z
[11] Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD tumbles to near $70.50, near-term outlook turns bearish URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-analysis-xag-usd-tumbles-to-near-7050-near-term-outlook-turns-bearish-202604020705 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 07:05:40 Z
[12] France Budget Balance fell from previous €-9.72B to €-32.12B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-budget-balance-fell-from-previous-eu-972b-to-eu-3212b-in-february-202604020645 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:45:48 Z
[13] France Budget Balance: €-32.1B (February) vs previous €-9.72B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-budget-balance-eu-321b-february-vs-previous-eu-972b-202604020645 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:45:01 Z
[14] AUD: Solid data overshadowed by fuel risks – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-solid-data-overshadowed-by-fuel-risks-rabobank-202604020641 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:41:48 Z
[15] Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) Q2 earnings and revenues surpass estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/penguin-solutions-inc-peng-q2-earnings-and-revenues-surpass-estimates-202604020641 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:41:09 Z
[16] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Recovers from 20-day EMA as US Dollar’s safe-haven demand revives URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-recovers-from-20-day-ema-as-us-dollars-safe-haven-demand-revives-202604020636 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:36:15 Z
[17] Gold weakens further below $4,600 as Trump dampens de-escalation hopes and lifts USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retreats-sharply-from-two-week-top-4-800-as-trumps-iran-comments-boost-usd-202604020357 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:32:21 Z
[18] Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-consumer-price-index-mom-below-expectations-05-in-march-actual-02-202604020630 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:30:01 Z
[19] Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.3%, below expectations (0.5%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-consumer-price-index-yoy-registered-at-03-below-expectations-05-in-march-202604020630 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:30:00 Z
[20] Pound Sterling weakens on Trump’s war comments URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-weakens-on-trumps-war-comments-202604020628 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:28:51 Z
[21] USD: Haven bid may pause with capped DXY – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-haven-bid-may-pause-with-capped-dxy-dbs-202604020628 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:28:36 Z
[22] USD/CAD bounces up on risk-off markets and returns above 1.3900 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-bounces-up-on-risk-off-markets-and-returns-above-13900-202604020625 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:25:17 Z
[23] USD/INR: RBI clampdown reshapes derivatives market – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-rbi-clampdown-reshapes-derivatives-market-commerzbank-202604020615 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:15:59 Z
[24] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD attracts heavy selling as Trump’s comments boost USD. URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-attracts-heavy-selling-as-trumps-comments-boost-usd-202604020611 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 06:11:19 Z
[25] Gulf countries consider new pipelines to avoid Strait of Hormuz — FT URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gulf-countries-consider-new-pipelines-to-avoid-strait-of-hormuz-ft-202604020548 Published: Thu, 02 Apr 2026 05:48:32 Z