Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-01 10:45:27
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.07)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (25.5% >50d, 49.7% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,767B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.446 (Moderate Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 96 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.28% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,974B | BTC: $68,324 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.95%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $655.69 ▲ | 37.09 | 28.0 | $646.35 | Bullish | 0.62 |
| QQQ | $584.20 ▲ | 35.75 | 30.5 | $571.48 | Bullish | 0.37 |
| IWM | $251.44 ▲ | 45.24 | 37.0 | $217.50 | Bullish | 0.64 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 24.28 ▼ | 51.76 | 50.8 | $11.00 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| TNX | 43.13 ▼ | 56.70 | 47.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $436.64 ▲ | 32.33 | 59.5 | $416.07 | Bullish | 0.24 |
| DXY | 99.44 ▲ | 47.67 ▲ | 47.0 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.06 ▲ | 35.17 | 33.6 | $61.77 | Bullish | 0.49 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.44 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▼
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.35 ▼ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 96.05
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 990,157 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,228,962 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.24 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.28% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.13%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 25.5% (of 494)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,767B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,974B
- BTC-USD: $68,324 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.33B
- Signal: Moderate Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.95%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (17):
[1] Biogen stock is locked into a rising trendline — And $202.41 is the destination URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/biogen-stock-is-locked-into-a-rising-trendline-and-20241-is-the-destination-202604011433 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:33:20 Z
[2] Oil: Price shock impact on US growth – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-price-shock-impact-on-us-growth-commerzbank-202604011430 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:30:22 Z
[3] United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at 5.451M above expectations (2M) in March 27 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-crude-oil-stocks-change-registered-at-5451m-above-expectations-2m-in-march-27-202604011430 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:30:02 Z
[4] Gold rises as USD weakens on US-Iran developments despite strong US data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-extends-gains-near-two-week-highs-amid-optimism-over-us-iran-war-202604011136 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:24:09 Z
[5] US: Earnings resilience and AI investment support outlook – HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-earnings-resilience-and-ai-investment-support-outlook-hsbc-202604011419 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:19:48 Z
[6] EUR/USD edges higher as easing US-Iran tensions outweigh support from strong US data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-edges-higher-as-easing-us-iran-tensions-outweigh-support-from-strong-us-data-202604011410 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:10:38 Z
[7] ECB: Pre-emptive hikes flagged on inflation risks – ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-pre-emptive-hikes-flagged-on-inflation-risks-abn-amro-202604011409 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:09:06 Z
[8] Breaking: ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-manufacturing-pmi-expected-to-remain-stable-in-march-202604010900 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:01:29 Z
[9] United States Business Inventories came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0.1%) in January URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-business-inventories-came-in-at-01-below-expectations-01-in-january-202604011400 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:00:15 Z
[10] United States ISM Manufacturing PMI registered at 52.7 above expectations (52.5) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-527-above-expectations-525-in-march-202604011400 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:00:03 Z
[11] United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 53.5 (March) vs previous 55.8 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-new-orders-index-535-march-vs-previous-558-202604011400 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:00:02 Z
[12] United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid registered at 78.3 above expectations (73) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-prices-paid-registered-at-783-above-expectations-73-in-march-202604011400 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:00:01 Z
[13] United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: 48.7 (March) vs previous 48.8 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-employment-index-487-march-vs-previous-488-202604011400 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 14:00:01 Z
[14] NOK: Energy support and hawkish shift – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nok-energy-support-and-hawkish-shift-rabobank-202604011354 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:54:50 Z
[15] United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3 below forecasts (52.4) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-523-below-forecasts-524-in-march-202604011345 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:45:01 Z
[16] Silver stabilizes as Iran de-escalation hopes temper safe-haven flows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-stabilizes-as-iran-de-escalation-hopes-temper-safe-haven-flows-202604011341 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:41:40 Z
[17] Copper: Chile output slump and mine cuts – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-chile-output-slump-and-mine-cuts-ing-202604011341 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:41:24 Z