Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-01 09:45:25
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.07)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (25.5% >50d, 49.7% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,767B (Expanding ◆)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.446 (Moderate Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 96 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.46% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,974B ◆ | BTC: $68,298 ▼ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +1.95%, Hit Rate 80% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $654.24 ▲ | 37.09 | 28.0 | $646.29 | Neutral | 0.77 |
| QQQ | $582.18 ▲ | 35.75 | 30.5 | $571.10 | Bullish | 0.47 |
| IWM | $250.53 ▲ | 45.24 | 37.0 | $247.42 | Neutral | 0.83 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 25.03 ▲ | 51.76 | 50.8 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.67 |
| TNX | 43.17 ▼ | 56.70 | 47.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $435.65 ▲ | 32.33 | 59.5 | $416.07 | Bullish | 0.27 |
| DXY | 99.35 ▼ | 47.04 ▼ | 47.9 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.84 ▼ | 35.17 | 33.6 | $61.69 | Bullish | 0.52 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.32% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.35 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 ▼ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 96.05
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 296,169 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 314,834 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.06 ▲ (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.46% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.16%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 25.5% (of 494)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 49.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,767B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B ▲ (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B ▲ (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,974B ◆
- BTC-USD: $68,298 ▼ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.33B
- Signal: Moderate Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +1.95%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.27%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (17):
[1] Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 50 in March from previous 51 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-declined-to-50-in-march-from-previous-51-202604011330 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:30:03 Z
[2] USD/CAD: Rally shows exhaustion near 1.39 – Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-rally-shows-exhaustion-near-139-scotiabank-202604011328 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:28:38 Z
[3] Estée Lauder (EL) wave V recovery signals strong upside ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/estee-lauder-el-wave-v-recovery-signals-strong-upside-ahead-202604011325 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:25:11 Z
[4] UK: Growth risks from energy shock – Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-growth-risks-from-energy-shock-deutsche-bank-202604011320 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:20:22 Z
[5] US President Trump: Going to be out of Iran pretty quickly URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-trump-going-to-be-out-of-iran-pretty-quickly-202604011315 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:15:07 Z
[6] South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales rose from previous 53455 to 58060 in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-total-new-vehicle-sales-rose-from-previous-53455-to-58060-in-march-202604011311 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:11:58 Z
[7] JPY: Energy shock impact seen more contained – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/jpy-energy-shock-impact-seen-more-contained-mufg-202604011311 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:11:23 Z
[8] Fed's Musalem: Monetary policy should hold in place for some time URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-musalem-monetary-policy-should-hold-in-place-for-some-time-202604011310 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:10:18 Z
[9] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP rallies to 1.3300 neighborhood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-rallies-to-13300-neighborhood-202604011307 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:07:26 Z
[10] Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 47.3 to 49 in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-climbed-from-previous-473-to-49-in-march-202604011300 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:00:01 Z
[11] ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to hold steady as sector shows resilience URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-manufacturing-pmi-expected-to-remain-stable-in-march-202604010900 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:00:00 Z
[12] Gold extends gains near two-week highs amid optimism over US-Iran war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-extends-gains-near-two-week-highs-amid-optimism-over-us-iran-war-202604011136 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:59:22 Z
[13] US President Trump: Iran's new regime President asked for a ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-trump-irans-new-regime-president-asked-for-a-ceasefire-202604011254 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:54:26 Z
[14] Oil: War risk keeps prices elevated – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-war-risk-keeps-prices-elevated-rabobank-202604011253 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:53:10 Z
[15] US Retail Sales rise 0.6% to $738.4 billion in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-retail-sales-rise-06-to-7384-billion-in-february-202604011249 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:49:56 Z
[16] US: Limited fallout from oil shock – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-limited-fallout-from-oil-shock-commerzbank-202604011242 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:42:12 Z
[17] GBP/JPY snaps four-day losing streak on improved market mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-snaps-four-day-losing-streak-on-improved-market-mood-202604011240 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:40:39 Z