Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-01 09:15:31
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.07)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (24.3% >50d, 48.9% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,767B (Expanding ◆)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.446 (Moderate Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 96 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.46% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,974B ◆ | BTC: $68,385 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +2.02%, Hit Rate 79% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $653.05 ▲ | 37.09 | 28.0 | $646.31 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| QQQ | $581.05 ▲ | 35.75 | 30.5 | $569.41 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| IWM | $249.09 ▲ | 45.24 | 37.0 | $205.00 | Bearish | 1.33 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 25.16 ▼ | 51.76 | 50.8 | $11.00 | Bullish | 0.68 |
| TNX | 43.29 ▼ | 56.70 | 47.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $434.62 ▲ | 32.33 | 59.5 | $406.57 | Bullish | 0.38 |
| DXY | 99.51 ▲ | 48.19 ▲ | 46.5 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.75 ▲ | 35.17 | 33.6 | $61.83 | Bullish | 0.54 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.33% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.73 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 99.51 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.34 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 96.05
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.46% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 0.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 24.3% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 48.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,767B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B ▲ (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,974B ◆
- BTC-USD: $68,385 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.33B
- Signal: Moderate Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +2.02%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.55%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 79%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 638224.0 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (15):
[1] BoE's Bailey: Markets getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes – Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boes-bailey-markets-getting-ahead-of-themselves-by-pricing-in-rate-hikes-reuters-202604011235 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:35:46 Z
[2] Fed's Barkin: Inflation expectations not at risk of breaking out – Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-barkin-inflation-expectations-not-at-risk-of-breaking-out-reuters-202604011232 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:32:03 Z
[3] United States Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 3.7% in February from previous 3.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-yoy-increased-to-37-in-february-from-previous-32-202604011230 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:30:41 Z
[4] United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) above forecasts (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-ex-autos-mom-above-forecasts-03-in-february-actual-05-202604011230 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:30:04 Z
[5] United States Retail Sales Control Group increased to 0.5% in February from previous 0.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-control-group-increased-to-05-in-february-from-previous-03-202604011230 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:30:04 Z
[6] United States Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (0.5%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-retail-sales-mom-registered-at-06-above-expectations-05-in-february-202604011230 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:30:01 Z
[7] BoJ: Rate hike prospects supported by solid sentiment – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boj-rate-hike-prospects-supported-by-solid-sentiment-ing-202604011220 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:20:58 Z
[8] Breaking: ADP Employment Change rose by 62K in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/adp-employment-change-expected-to-show-subdued-us-job-growth-in-march-202604010730 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:17:29 Z
[9] United States ADP Employment Change above expectations (40K) in March: Actual (62K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-above-expectations-40k-in-march-actual-62k-202604011215 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:15:46 Z
[10] Equities: AI-driven support with regional tilts – HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-ai-driven-support-with-regional-tilts-hsbc-202604011206 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:06:32 Z
[11] ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to remain stable in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-manufacturing-pmi-expected-to-remain-stable-in-march-202604010900 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:00:00 Z
[12] Elliott Wave analysis: S&P500 at an inflection point URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/elliott-wave-analysis-sp500-at-an-inflection-point-202604011156 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:56:31 Z
[13] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rallies further with the $5,000 level on focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-rallies-further-with-the-5-000-level-on-focus-202604011149 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:49:31 Z
[14] Oil: Prices retreat on de-escalation hopes – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-prices-retreat-on-de-escalation-hopes-bny-202604011148 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:48:03 Z
[15] WTI pares half of early losses, recovers to near $96 as oil supply risks remain intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-pares-half-of-early-losses-recovers-to-near-96-as-oil-supply-risks-remain-intact-202604011141 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:41:43 Z