Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-01 08:00:09
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.07)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (24.3% >50d, 48.9% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,767B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.446 (Moderate Dark Pool Buying)
- MOVE Index: 96 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.46% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,974B | BTC: $68,684 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +2.02%, Hit Rate 79% (Historically Bullish)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $652.24 | 22.80 | 19.9 | $640.90 | Bearish | 1.21 |
| QQQ | $580.19 | 21.95 | 22.5 | $563.28 | Bullish | 0.38 |
| IWM | $248.72 | 34.05 | 27.7 | $205.00 | Neutral | 1.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 25.25 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.00 | Bearish | 1.34 |
| TNX | 43.11 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $431.17 | 22.70 | 54.2 | $406.70 | Bullish | 0.50 |
| DXY | 99.85 | 54.70 | 48.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.87 | 22.84 | 29.5 | $61.84 | Bullish | 0.67 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.85
- Growth vs Value: 0.89
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 96.05
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 708,279
- 0DTE Put Volume: 881,777
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.24 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.46% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.16%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 24.3% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 48.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,767B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,974B
- BTC-USD: $68,684 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.33B
- Signal: Moderate Dark Pool Buying
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +2.02%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.55%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 79%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- No key economic prints today.
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (18):
[1] USD/JPY: Downside pressure builds toward 158.00 – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-downside-pressure-builds-toward-15800-uob-202604011138 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:38:03 Z
[2] Gold extends gains near two-week highs amid optimism over US–Iran war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-extends-gains-near-two-week-highs-amid-optimism-over-us-iran-war-202604011136 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:36:42 Z
[3] ADP Employment Change set to reflect slight job growth ahead of key NFP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/adp-employment-change-expected-to-show-subdued-us-job-growth-in-march-202604010730 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:30:00 Z
[4] USD: Data focus on retail sales and ISM – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-data-focus-on-retail-sales-and-ism-td-securities-202604011126 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:26:14 Z
[5] USD/JPY softens as Middle East de-escalation hopes weigh on USD ahead of key US data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-softens-as-middle-east-de-escalation-hopes-weigh-on-usd-ahead-of-key-us-data-202604011123 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:23:28 Z
[6] USD: Conflict endgame risks point to renewed weakness – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-conflict-endgame-risks-point-to-renewed-weakness-mufg-202604011109 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:09:35 Z
[7] ECB’s Makhlouf: Ready to act when data clarifies war effects URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-makhlouf-ready-to-act-when-data-clarifies-war-effects-202604011106 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:06:54 Z
[8] USD/CHF slides below 0.7930 amid generalised Dollar weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-slides-below-07930-amid-generalised-dollar-weakness-202604011105 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:05:04 Z
[9] United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous -10.5% to -10.4% in March 27 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-climbed-from-previous-105-to-104-in-march-27-202604011100 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:00:02 Z
[10] ISM Manufacturing PMI forecast to remain steady, markets look at Prices Index URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-manufacturing-pmi-expected-to-remain-stable-in-march-202604010900 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:00:00 Z
[11] IEA’s Birol: This crisis is worse than the two in the 1970s and Russia-related in 2022 put together URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ieas-birol-this-crisis-is-worse-than-the-two-in-the-1970s-and-russia-related-in-2022-put-together-202604011044 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 10:44:03 Z
[12] UK PM Starmer: Impact of Iran war will affect the UK's future URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-pm-starmer-impact-of-iran-war-will-affect-the-uks-future-202604011035 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 10:35:32 Z
[13] NQ 100 impulsive price action likely to continue URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nq-100-impulsive-price-action-likely-to-continue-202604011022 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 10:22:00 Z
[14] AUD/USD extends gains to 0.6950 amid higher appetite for risk URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-extends-gains-to-06950-amid-higher-appetite-for-risk-202604011017 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 10:17:13 Z
[15] BoE FPC: Global supply shock from Middle East war adds to rising vulnerabilities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boe-fpc-global-supply-shock-from-middle-east-war-adds-to-rising-vulnerabilities-202604011010 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 10:10:58 Z
[16] Gold: Diversification role strengthens with safe-haven demand – HSBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-diversification-role-strengthens-with-safe-haven-demand-hsbc-202604011005 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 10:05:27 Z
[17] EUR/USD: Upside bias within capped range – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-upside-bias-within-capped-range-uob-202604010956 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:56:53 Z
[18] CAD: BoC minutes expected to stay dovish – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cad-boc-minutes-expected-to-stay-dovish-td-securities-202604010943 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:43:28 Z