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2026-W14

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-01 06:00:07

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.07)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (24.3% >50d, 48.9% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,767B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.446 (Moderate Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 96 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.46% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,974B | BTC: $68,622 ▼ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.02%, Hit Rate 79% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $652.24 22.80 19.9 $640.90 Bearish 1.21
QQQ $580.19 21.95 22.5 $563.28 Bullish 0.38
IWM $248.72 34.05 27.7 $205.00 Neutral 1.19

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 25.25 61.66 44.3 $10.00 Bearish 1.34
TNX 43.11 62.72 50.5 - - -
GLD $431.17 22.70 54.2 $406.70 Bullish 0.50
DXY 99.85 54.70 48.8 - - -
SLV $67.87 22.84 29.5 $61.84 Bullish 0.67

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.31%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.85
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 96.05
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 708,279
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 881,777
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.24 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.46% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.16%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 24.3% (of 502)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 48.9%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.8B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,767B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,974B
  • BTC-USD: $68,622 ▼ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.33B
  • Signal: Moderate Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.02%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.55%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 79%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
  • GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-21
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • No key economic prints today.

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] EUR/GBP edges lower as BoE tightening expectations outweigh Eurozone PMI strength URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-edges-lower-as-boe-tightening-expectations-outweigh-eurozone-pmi-strength-202604010935 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:35:37 Z

[2] Energy: Oil and Gas prices fall on Iran war optimism – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/energy-oil-and-gas-prices-fall-on-iran-war-optimism-ing-202604010934 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:34:06 Z

[3] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604010930 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:30:14 Z

[4] ADP Employment Change expected to increase slightly ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls report URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/adp-employment-change-expected-to-show-subdued-us-job-growth-in-march-202604010730 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:30:00 Z

[5] USD: Yields slide and Dollar softens – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-yields-slide-and-dollar-softens-rabobank-202604010919 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:19:50 Z

[6] GBP: Energy vulnerability threatens recent resilience – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-energy-vulnerability-threatens-recent-resilience-mufg-202604010914 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:14:10 Z

[7] USD/INR plummets as Middle East war de-escalation drags oil price sharply URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-tumbles-at-open-as-middle-east-war-de-escalates-202604010526 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:12:43 Z

[8] US mulls exiting NATO – The Telegraph URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-mulls-exiting-nato-the-telegraph-202604010908 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:08:52 Z

[9] AUD/JPY rises to near 110.00 as Middle East tensions de-escalate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-rises-to-near-11000-as-middle-east-tensions-de-escalate-202604010904 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:04:47 Z

[10] Eurozone Unemployment Rate above expectations (6.1%) in February: Actual (6.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-unemployment-rate-above-expectations-61-in-february-actual-62-202604010900 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:00:03 Z

[11] ISM Manufacturing PMI expected to remain stable in March
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-manufacturing-pmi-expected-to-remain-stable-in-march-202604010900 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:00:00 Z

[12] Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) up to 8.5% in February from previous 7.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-unemployment-rate-mom-up-to-85-in-february-from-previous-77-202604010859 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:59:52 Z

[13] Eurozone: Inflation sparks ECB rate repricing – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-inflation-sparks-ecb-rate-repricing-dbs-202604010858 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:58:53 Z

[14] EUR/JPY approaches 184.00 after bright Eurozone manufacturing data   URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-approaches-18400-after-bright-eurozone-manufacturing-data-202604010853 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:53:20 Z

[15] EUR/USD extends recovery to near 1.1600 on Mideast ceasefire hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-extends-recovery-to-near-11600-on-mideast-ceasefire-hopes-202604010853 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:53:17 Z

[16] US: Limited boost for growth from tax refunds – Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-limited-boost-for-growth-from-tax-refunds-standard-chartered-202604010846 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:46:56 Z

[17] BoJ’s Asada: Rising oil prices put upwards pressure on inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-asada-rising-oil-prices-put-upwards-pressure-on-inflation-202604010834 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:34:08 Z

[18] Gold: Extends gains but remains vulnerable – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-extends-gains-but-remains-vulnerable-ing-202604010834 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:34:02 Z

[19] United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (51.2) in March: Actual (51) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-below-forecasts-512-in-march-actual-51-202604010830 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:30:01 Z

[20] JPY: Tankan resilience supports Yen view – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/jpy-tankan-resilience-supports-yen-view-societe-generale-202604010824 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:24:04 Z

[21] Dow Jones futures rise on de-escalating Middle East tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-on-de-escalating-middle-east-tensions-202604010818 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:18:30 Z

[22] US Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Potential double top at 100.60 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-price-forecast-potential-double-top-at-10060-202604010811 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:11:45 Z

[23] USD: Softer labour signals and lower yields weigh – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-softer-labour-signals-and-lower-yields-weigh-danske-bank-202604010801 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:01:51 Z

[24] Italy Unemployment meets forecasts (5.3%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-unemployment-meets-forecasts-53-in-february-202604010800 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:00:45 Z

[25] Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (51.4) in March: Actual (51.6) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-above-forecasts-514-in-march-actual-516-202604010800 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:00:39 Z

[26] Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 54.5 in March from previous 54.4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-up-to-545-in-march-from-previous-544-202604010800 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 08:00:01 Z

[27] Gold clings to gains near two-week high, above $4,700 amid a weaker USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-advances-to-nearly-two-week-high-as-usd-slips-on-hopes-that-iran-war-could-end-soon-202604010357 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:59:17 Z

[28] Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.2, above expectations (51.7) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-522-above-expectations-517-in-march-202604010755 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:55:08 Z

[29] France HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (50.2) in March: Actual (50) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-below-forecasts-502-in-march-actual-50-202604010750 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:50:08 Z

[30] GBP/JPY recovers from four-week low, eyes 210.50 on Iran de-escalation hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-recovers-from-four-week-low-eyes-21050-on-iran-de-escalation-hopes-202604010750 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:50:06 Z