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2026-W14

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-01 04:00:09

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.07)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (24.3% >50d, 48.9% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,767B (Expanding ◆)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.446 (Moderate Dark Pool Buying)
  • MOVE Index: 96 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.46% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,974B ◆ | BTC: $68,658 ▲ (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (April): Avg +2.02%, Hit Rate 79% (Historically Bullish)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $652.24 22.80 19.9 $640.90 Bearish 1.21
QQQ $580.19 21.95 22.5 $563.28 Bullish 0.38
IWM $248.72 34.05 27.7 $205.00 Neutral 1.19

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 25.25 61.66 44.3 $10.00 Bearish 1.34
TNX 43.11 62.72 50.5 - - -
GLD $431.17 22.70 54.2 $406.70 Bullish 0.50
DXY 99.85 54.70 48.8 - - -
SLV $67.87 22.84 29.5 $61.84 Bullish 0.67

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.31%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.85
  • Growth vs Value: 0.89
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 96.05
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 708,279
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 881,777
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.24 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.46% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.16%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 24.3% (of 502)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 48.9%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.8B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,767B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding ◆
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,974B ◆
  • BTC-USD: $68,658 ▲ (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.33B
  • Signal: Moderate Dark Pool Buying

Seasonality (April)

  • 20yr Average Return: +2.02%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.55%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 79%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
  • GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-21
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • No key economic prints today.

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Corrects further below 20-day EMA as Iran conflicts de-escalate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-corrects-further-below-20-day-ema-as-iran-conflicts-de-escalate-202604010737 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:37:33 Z

[2] Stocks soar as predicted [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/stocks-soar-as-predicted-video-202604010735 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:35:19 Z

[3] Austria Unemployment Rate declined to 7.5% in March from previous 8.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-unemployment-rate-declined-to-75-in-march-from-previous-83-202604010732 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:32:48 Z

[4] Austria Unemployment fell from previous 357.5K to 322.7K in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-unemployment-fell-from-previous-3575k-to-3227k-in-march-202604010732 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:32:46 Z

[5] Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 53.3, above expectations (47) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-svme-purchasing-managers-index-came-in-at-533-above-expectations-47-in-march-202604010730 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:30:01 Z

[6] ADP Employment Change expected to show subdued US job growth in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/adp-employment-change-expected-to-show-subdued-us-job-growth-in-march-202604010730 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:30:00 Z

[7] INR: RBI curbs positioning as rupee hits new low – DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/inr-rbi-curbs-positioning-as-rupee-hits-new-low-dbs-202604010720 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:20:56 Z

[8] Forex Today: April begins with hopes of and end to Middle East conflict URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-april-begins-with-hopes-of-and-end-to-middle-east-conflict-202604010717 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:17:39 Z

[9] Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.7, below expectations (50.3) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-487-below-expectations-503-in-march-202604010715 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:15:00 Z

[10] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD resistance around $75.00 is testing bullish momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-resistance-around-7500-is-testing-bullish-momentum-202604010710 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:10:06 Z

[11] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Rallies to 1.3300 neighborhood, fresh weekly top on weaker USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-rallies-to-13300-neighborhood-fresh-weekly-top-on-weaker-usd-202604010705 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:05:16 Z

[12] S&P 500: Risk rally extends after Iran headlines – Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-risk-rally-extends-after-iran-headlines-deutsche-bank-202604010656 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:56:33 Z

[13] USD/INR tumbles as Middle East war de-escalates strengthen risk-on impulse URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-tumbles-at-open-as-middle-east-war-de-escalates-202604010526 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:44:35 Z

[14] EUR/USD: Back above 1.15 on improved risk tone – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-back-above-115-on-improved-risk-tone-danske-bank-202604010639 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:39:24 Z

[15] USD/CHF slumps to near 0.7960 as US Dollar weakens amid Mideast war de-escalation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-slumps-to-near-07960-as-us-dollar-weakens-amid-mideast-war-de-escalation-202604010637 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:37:20 Z

[16] Gold sits near two-week top, above $4,700 as US-Iran de-escalation hopes undermine USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-advances-to-nearly-two-week-high-as-usd-slips-on-hopes-that-iran-war-could-end-soon-202604010357 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:34:31 Z

[17] Sweden Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 56.1 to 56.3 in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-manufacturing-pmi-climbed-from-previous-561-to-563-in-march-202604010630 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:30:20 Z

[18] Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) meets forecasts (0.9%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-real-retail-sales-yoy-meets-forecasts-09-in-february-202604010630 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:30:01 Z

[19] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD ticks up amid de-escalation in the Middle East war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-ticks-up-amid-de-escalation-in-the-middle-east-war-202604010628 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:28:10 Z

[20] USD/CAD hesitates at 1.3900 on hopes of a swift end to the war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-hesitates-at-13900-on-hopes-of-a-swift-end-to-the-war-202604010627 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:27:03 Z

[21] WTI Price Analysis: Middle East war de-escalation restricts oil rally around $103.40 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-analysis-middle-east-war-de-escalation-restricts-oil-rally-around-10340-202604010624 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:24:22 Z

[22] USD: Petrodollar shift and chip trade – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-petrodollar-shift-and-chip-trade-commerzbank-202604010619 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:19:12 Z

[23] Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 (March) vs previous 49.5 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-483-march-vs-previous-495-202604010600 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:00:01 Z

[24] Asian stocks gain with Kospi soars on improving risk appetite URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-gain-with-kospi-soars-on-improving-risk-appetite-202604010546 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 05:46:23 Z

[25] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Middle East peace hopes back further recovery towards 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-middle-east-peace-hopes-back-further-recovery-towards-20-day-ema-202604010541 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 05:41:05 Z