Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 21:01:39
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral ◆ (Score: -0.08)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (24.3% >50d, 48.9% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,767B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.446 ▲ (Moderate Dark Pool Buying ◆)
- MOVE Index: 96 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.46% ▲ (Watchful ◆) | 2s10s: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,974B | BTC: $68,231 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (April): Avg +2.02% ▲, Hit Rate 79% (Historically Bullish ◆)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $652.24 ▲ | 22.80 | 19.9 | $640.90 | Bearish | 1.21 |
| QQQ | $580.19 ▲ | 21.95 | 22.5 | $563.28 | Bullish | 0.38 |
| IWM | $248.72 ▲ | 34.05 | 27.7 | $205.00 | Neutral | 1.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 25.25 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.00 | Bearish | 1.34 |
| TNX | 43.11 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $431.17 ▲ | 22.70 | 54.2 | $406.70 | Bullish | 0.50 |
| DXY | 99.73 ▼ | 53.73 ▼ | 50.3 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.87 ▼ | 22.84 | 29.5 | $61.84 | Bullish | 0.67 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.73 ▼
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.33 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 96.05
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 708,279 ▼
- 0DTE Put Volume: 881,777 ▼
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.24 ▼ (Balanced 0DTE Flow ◆)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.46% ▲ (Watchful ◆)
- BBB Spread: 1.16%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.51% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 24.3% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 48.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $15.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,767B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,974B
- BTC-USD: $68,231 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446 ▲
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.33B ▲
- Signal: Moderate Dark Pool Buying ◆
Seasonality (April)
- 20yr Average Return: +2.02% ▲
- 20yr Median Return: +1.55% ▲
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 79%
- Signal: Historically Bullish ◆
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- No key economic prints today.
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (19):
[1] Australia Building Permits (YoY): 14% (February) vs -15.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-building-permits-yoy-14-february-vs-157-202604010031 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:31:56 Z
[2] Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at 29.7%, above expectations (6.5%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-building-permits-mom-came-in-at-297-above-expectations-65-in-february-202604010030 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:30:02 Z
[3] South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.6 in March from previous 51.1 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-increased-to-526-in-march-from-previous-511-202604010030 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:30:01 Z
[4] Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6, above forecasts (51.4) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jibun-bank-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-516-above-forecasts-514-in-march-202604010030 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:30:01 Z
[5] South Korea Trade Balance above expectations ($21.2B) in March: Actual ($25.74B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-trade-balance-above-expectations-212b-in-march-actual-2574b-202604010001 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:01:13 Z
[6] Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 53.1 to 53.7 in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-aib-manufacturing-pmi-climbed-from-previous-531-to-537-in-march-202604010001 Published: Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:01:01 Z
[7] Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook came in at 29, above forecasts (28) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tankan-non-manufacturing-outlook-came-in-at-29-above-forecasts-28-in-1q-202603312353 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 23:53:28 Z
[8] Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex fell from previous 12.6% to 3.3% in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tankan-large-all-industry-capex-fell-from-previous-126-to-33-in-1q-202603312350 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 23:50:04 Z
[9] Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index above expectations (33) in 1Q: Actual (36) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tankan-non-manufacturing-index-above-expectations-33-in-1q-actual-36-202603312350 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 23:50:04 Z
[10] Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook came in at 14, above forecasts (13) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tankan-large-manufacturing-outlook-came-in-at-14-above-forecasts-13-in-1q-202603312350 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 23:50:03 Z
[11] Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index registered at 17 above expectations (16) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tankan-large-manufacturing-index-registered-at-17-above-expectations-16-in-1q-202603312350 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 23:50:02 Z
[12] China: PMI rebound seen as fragile without support – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-pmi-rebound-seen-as-fragile-without-support-td-securities-202603312319 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 23:19:00 Z
[13] USD/IDR: Upside risks with BI liquidity tools – OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-idr-upside-risks-with-bi-liquidity-tools-ocbc-202603312252 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 22:52:00 Z
[14] MYR: Policy stance steady with data watch – UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/myr-policy-stance-steady-with-data-watch-uob-202603312226 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 22:26:00 Z
[15] Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below expectations (50.1) in March: Actual (49.8) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-below-expectations-501-in-march-actual-498-202603312224 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 22:24:23 Z
[16] KRW: Policy easing under consideration - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/krw-policy-easing-under-consideration-bny-202603312157 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 21:57:00 Z
[17] GBP/USD snaps five-day slide on Iran peace hopes ahead of key US data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-snaps-five-day-slide-on-iran-peace-hopes-ahead-of-key-us-data-202603312143 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 21:43:59 Z
[18] USD/JPY slides below 159.00 as Iran peace hopes weigh on the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-slides-below-15900-as-iran-peace-hopes-weigh-on-the-us-dollar-202603312140 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 21:40:52 Z
[19] Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD surges and clears 100-day SMA and $75 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-analysis-xag-usd-surges-and-clears-100-day-sma-and-75-202603312135 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 21:35:34 Z