Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 11:38:11
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: N/A (Score: N/A)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (21.7% ▲ >50d, 46.6% ▲ >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
- MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.46% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $66,919 ▲ (Neutral)
- Seasonality (March): Avg +0.89% ▲, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $641.10 ▲ | 22.80 | 19.9 | $636.00 | Bearish | 1.51 |
| QQQ | $567.54 ▲ | 21.95 | 22.5 | $561.00 | Neutral | 0.84 |
| IWM | $243.90 ▲ | 34.05 | 27.7 | $185.00 | Bearish | 1.96 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 27.60 ▼ | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.04 | Bullish | 0.49 |
| TNX | 43.28 ▼ | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $424.10 ▲ | 22.70 | 54.2 | $406.55 | Bullish | 0.53 |
| DXY | 100.11 ▲ | 56.94 ▼ | 46.2 ▲ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.78 ▲ | 22.84 | 29.5 | $61.85 | Neutral | 0.71 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.33% ▼
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.72 ▼ (Normal)
- DXY: 100.11 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.89 ▲
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 ▲ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 ▲ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,453,440 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,059,188 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.42 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.46% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.16%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 21.7% ▲ (of 497)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 46.6% ▲
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
- BTC-USD: $66,919 ▲ (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
- Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure
Seasonality (March)
- 20yr Average Return: +0.89% ▲
- 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 633709.0 (Period: 2026-01-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] Gold hovers near $4,600 as US Dollar eases URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-hovers-below-4-600-as-traders-weigh-mideast-de-escalation-hopes-and-interest-rate-outlook-202603311214 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 15:08:53 Z
[2] USD/CAD rises to fresh three-month highs despite softer US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-rises-to-fresh-three-month-highs-despite-softer-us-dollar-202603311504 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 15:04:33 Z
[3] USD/CAD: Upside focus on 1.40 target – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-upside-focus-on-140-target-td-securities-202603311504 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 15:04:03 Z
[4] Iran IRGC: Will target US companies in region as of April 1 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-irgc-will-target-us-companies-in-region-as-of-april-1-202603311456 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:56:50 Z
[5] Brazil: Growth to lag trend as policy tightens – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-growth-to-lag-trend-as-policy-tightens-societe-generale-202603311455 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:55:31 Z
[6] The Iran war has all but killed the bull case for stocks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-iran-war-has-all-but-killed-the-bull-case-for-stocks-202603311455 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:55:10 Z
[7] Silver price rallies on US-Iran de-escalation hopes, softer inflation outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-rallies-on-us-iran-de-escalation-hopes-softer-inflation-outlook-202603311452 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:52:32 Z
[8] US CB Consumer Confidence edges higher to 91.8 in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cb-consumer-confidence-edges-higher-to-918-in-march-202603311452 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:52:22 Z
[9] CAD: Growth momentum supports cautious BoC stance – RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cad-growth-momentum-supports-cautious-boc-stance-rbc-202603311438 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:38:07 Z