Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 10:45:27
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: N/A (Score: N/A)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (21.9% >50d, 46.7% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
- MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.25 ▼ (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.46% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $67,191 (Neutral)
- Seasonality (March): Avg +0.89% ▲, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $640.30 | 22.80 | 19.9 | $635.99 | Bearish | 1.60 |
| QQQ | $566.83 | 21.95 | 22.5 | $560.98 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| IWM | $243.32 | 34.05 | 27.7 | $185.00 | Bearish | 2.23 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 27.80 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.04 | Bullish | 0.50 |
| TNX | 43.24 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $423.27 | 22.70 | 54.2 | $406.56 | Bullish | 0.55 |
| DXY | 99.99 ▼ | 55.86 | 47.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.62 | 22.84 | 29.5 | $55.64 | Bullish | 0.67 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.32% ▲
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.72 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.99
- Growth vs Value: 0.89
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.32 ▼ (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 913,149
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,228,870
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.35 ▲ (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging) ◆)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.46% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.16%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 21.9% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 46.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
- BTC-USD: $67,191 (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
- Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure
Seasonality (March)
- 20yr Average Return: +0.89%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- No key economic prints today.
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] Oil: Mixed product impact and Hormuz risk – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-mixed-product-impact-and-hormuz-risk-commerzbank-202603311415 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:15:28 Z
[2] $BABA confirms Elliott Wave with spot-on blue box reversal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/baba-confirms-elliott-wave-with-spot-on-blue-box-reversal-202603311408 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:08:50 Z
[3] US JOLTS Job Openings decline to 6.882 million in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-jolts-job-openings-decline-to-6882-million-in-february-202603311407 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:07:48 Z
[4] LRCX Elliott Wave analysis: Buyers eye $178.5–$139.5 support zone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/lrcx-elliott-wave-analysis-buyers-eye-1785-1395-support-zone-202603311402 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:02:22 Z
[5] Aluminium: Middle East outages tighten supply – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aluminium-middle-east-outages-tighten-supply-ing-202603311400 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:00:23 Z
[6] United States JOLTS Job Openings below forecasts (6.92M) in February: Actual (6.882M) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-jolts-job-openings-below-forecasts-692m-in-february-actual-6882m-202603311400 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 14:00:03 Z
[7] Ralph Lauren (RL) Elliott Wave analysis: Wave III points to further upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ralph-lauren-rl-elliott-wave-analysis-wave-iii-points-to-further-upside-202603311357 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:57:14 Z
[8] Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Road to triple digits ($100) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/occidental-petroleum-oxy-road-to-triple-digits-100-202603311352 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:52:22 Z
[9] USD/JPY: Verbal pushback as 162–164 looms – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-verbal-pushback-as-162-164-looms-td-securities-202603311348 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:48:57 Z
[10] United States Chicago PMI registered at 52.8, below expectations (55) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-chicago-pmi-registered-at-528-below-expectations-55-in-march-202603311345 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:45:01 Z
[11] Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD): Big correction or trend change? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/robinhood-nasdaq-hood-big-correction-or-trend-change-202603311340 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:40:35 Z
[12] Mexico: Sub‑potential growth with delayed easing – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-sub-potential-growth-with-delayed-easing-societe-generale-202603311334 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:34:46 Z