Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 09:41:35
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: N/A (Score: N/A)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (21.3% >50d, 46.9% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
- MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.42% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $66,932 (Neutral)
- Seasonality (March): Avg +0.88%, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $640.04 | 22.80 | 19.9 | $635.99 | Bearish | 1.72 |
| QQQ | $565.87 | 21.95 | 22.5 | $560.98 | Neutral | 0.96 |
| IWM | $243.84 | 34.05 | 27.7 | $185.00 | Bearish | 2.09 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 27.98 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.04 | Bullish | 0.50 |
| TNX | 43.09 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $421.46 | 22.70 | 54.2 | $403.92 | Bullish | 0.62 |
| DXY | 100.11 | 56.90 | 46.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.18 | 22.84 | 29.5 | $61.81 | Neutral | 0.72 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.70 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.11
- Growth vs Value: 0.88
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.31 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 148,334
- 0DTE Put Volume: 206,963
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.40 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.42% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.14%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 21.3% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 46.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
- BTC-USD: $66,932 (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
- Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure
Seasonality (March)
- 20yr Average Return: +0.88%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- No key economic prints today.
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] Gold hovers below $4,600 as traders weigh Mideast de-escalation hopes and interest rate outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-hovers-below-4-600-as-traders-weigh-mideast-de-escalation-hopes-and-interest-rate-outlook-202603311214 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:22:51 Z
[2] EUR/GBP fluctuates as energy-led Eurozone inflation contrasts with fragile UK growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-fluctuates-as-energy-led-eurozone-inflation-contrasts-with-fragile-uk-growth-202603311318 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:18:39 Z
[3] Gold: Correlation with oil turns supportive – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-correlation-with-oil-turns-supportive-commerzbank-202603311317 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:17:32 Z
[4] Pentagon Chief: US has more options as Iran war nears decisive phase, door open to deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pentagon-chief-us-has-more-options-as-iran-war-nears-decisive-phase-door-open-to-deal-202603311315 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:15:56 Z
[5] Eurozone: Rising energy shock challenges ECB – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-rising-energy-shock-challenges-ecb-ing-202603311303 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:03:27 Z
[6] United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) came in at 1.2%, below expectations (1.3%) in January URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices-yoy-came-in-at-12-below-expectations-13-in-january-202603311300 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:01 Z
[7] United States Housing Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in January URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-housing-price-index-mom-in-line-with-expectations-01-in-january-202603311300 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:01 Z
[8] WTI Crude Oil pulls back on Iran de-escalation hopes as markets eye API inventory draw URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-crude-oil-pulls-back-on-iran-de-escalation-hopes-as-markets-eye-api-inventory-draw-202603311256 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:56:13 Z
[9] United States Redbook Index (YoY) up to 6.9% in March 27 from previous 6.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-redbook-index-yoy-up-to-69-in-march-27-from-previous-67-202603311255 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:55:01 Z
[10] Fed: Liquidity rule changes reshape lender-of-last-resort role – BNP Paribas URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-liquidity-rule-changes-reshape-lender-of-last-resort-role-bnp-paribas-202603311250 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:50:59 Z
[11] JBLU: JetBlue is approaching a make-or-break support level URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/jblu-jetblue-is-approaching-a-make-or-break-support-level-202603311250 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:50:28 Z