Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 09:01:29
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.08)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (20.3% >50d, 45.1% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
- MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.42% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.00% (N/A)
- Global Liquidity: N/A | BTC: $66,649 (Neutral)
- Seasonality (March): Avg +0.82%, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $638.87 | 22.80 | 19.9 | $635.99 | Bearish | 2.92 |
| QQQ | $564.24 | 21.95 | 22.5 | $560.97 | Bearish | 1.91 |
| IWM | $243.10 | 34.05 | 27.7 | $165.00 | Bearish | 4.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 28.24 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.50 | Bullish | 0.39 |
| TNX | 43.11 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $420.49 | 22.70 | 54.2 | $392.37 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| DXY | 100.21 | 57.86 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $65.97 | 22.84 | 29.5 | $51.72 | Neutral | 1.01 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.31%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.70 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.21
- Growth vs Value: 0.88
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.30 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.42% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 0.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.00% (N/A)
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 20.3% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 45.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$0B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): N/A
- BTC-USD: $66,649 (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
- Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure
Seasonality (March)
- 20yr Average Return: +0.82%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- No key economic prints today.
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0%) in January: Actual (0.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-gross-domestic-product-mom-above-forecasts-0-in-january-actual-01-202603311230 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:30:02 Z
[2] AUD/NZD: Pullback seen as chance to re‑enter longs – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-nzd-pullback-seen-as-chance-to-re-enter-longs-td-securities-202603311228 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:28:19 Z
[3] Gold hovers below $4,600 as traders weigh Mideast de-escalation hopes and interest rate outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-hovers-below-4-600-as-traders-weigh-mideast-de-escalation-hopes-and-interest-rate-outlook-202603311214 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:14:12 Z
[4] INR: Realized flows show heavy selling - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/inr-realized-flows-show-heavy-selling-bny-202603311206 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:06:11 Z
[5] South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) rose from previous 9.31B to 36.92B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-trade-balance-in-rands-rose-from-previous-931b-to-3692b-in-february-202603311200 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:00:38 Z
[6] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP trades higher against its major currency peers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-trades-higher-against-its-major-currency-peers-202603311152 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 11:52:38 Z
[7] Trump criticizes UK and France, urges allies to secure their own Oil routes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/trump-criticizes-uk-and-france-urges-allies-to-secure-their-own-oil-routes-202603311151 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 11:51:31 Z
[8] JPY: BoJ may advance hike on Iran conflict risk – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/jpy-boj-may-advance-hike-on-iran-conflict-risk-commerzbank-202603311149 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 11:49:04 Z
[9] GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Pound remains weak below 211.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-analysis-pound-remains-weak-below-21100-202603311141 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 11:41:20 Z
[10] USD: Energy shock supports strength as Fed stays cautious – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-energy-shock-supports-strength-as-fed-stays-cautious-mufg-202603311136 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 11:36:03 Z