Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 08:00:02
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.07)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (20.3% >50d, 45.1% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
- MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.42% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $66,548 (Neutral)
- Seasonality (March): Avg +0.82%, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $638.65 | 22.80 | 19.9 | $635.99 | Bearish | 2.92 |
| QQQ | $563.83 | 21.95 | 22.5 | $560.97 | Bearish | 1.91 |
| IWM | $243.06 | 34.05 | 27.7 | $165.00 | Bearish | 4.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 28.63 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.50 | Bullish | 0.39 |
| TNX | 43.42 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $420.89 | 22.70 | 54.2 | $392.37 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| DXY | 100.33 | 58.91 | 44.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.20 | 22.84 | 29.5 | $51.72 | Neutral | 1.01 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.34%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.33
- Growth vs Value: 0.88
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.30 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.42% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.14%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 20.3% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 45.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
- BTC-USD: $66,548 (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
- Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure
Seasonality (March)
- 20yr Average Return: +0.82%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 633709.0 (Period: 2026-01-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] Pound Sterling outperforms its peers as Trump’s peace call underpins risk-on mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-outperforms-its-peers-as-trumps-peace-call-underpins-risk-on-mood-202603311126 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 11:26:00 Z
[2] EUR/GBP: Rebound tests key averages – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-rebound-tests-key-averages-societe-generale-202603311124 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 11:24:50 Z
[3] RBA: May hike likely as inflation risks build – TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rba-may-hike-likely-as-inflation-risks-build-td-securities-202603311112 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 11:12:22 Z
[4] USD/CHF rises for sixth day as risk sentiment improves, SNB stance weighs on Franc URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-rises-for-sixth-day-as-risk-sentiment-improves-snb-stance-weighs-on-franc-202603311106 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 11:06:10 Z
[5] ECB’s Müller: Can't rule out rate hike in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-muller-cant-rule-out-rate-hike-in-april-202603311052 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 10:52:44 Z
[6] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls remain capped below $4,600 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-bulls-remain-capped-below-4-600-202603311040 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 10:40:15 Z