Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 06:59:04
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.08)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (20.3% >50d, 45.1% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
- MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.42% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $66,361 (Neutral)
- Seasonality (March): Avg +0.82%, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $636.80 | 22.80 | 19.9 | $635.99 | Bearish | 2.92 |
| QQQ | $561.94 | 21.95 | 22.5 | $560.97 | Bearish | 1.91 |
| IWM | $242.42 | 34.05 | 27.7 | $165.00 | Bearish | 4.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 29.09 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.50 | Bullish | 0.39 |
| TNX | 43.42 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $417.77 | 22.70 | 54.2 | $392.37 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| DXY | 100.52 | 60.83 | 44.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $65.77 | 22.84 | 29.5 | $51.72 | Neutral | 1.01 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.34%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.52
- Growth vs Value: 0.88
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.30 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.42% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.14%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 20.3% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 45.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
- BTC-USD: $66,361 (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
- Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure
Seasonality (March)
- 20yr Average Return: +0.82%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 633709.0 (Period: 2026-01-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] Global futures signal fragile relief as Oil pullback offsets geopolitical risk URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/global-futures-signal-fragile-relief-as-oil-pullback-offsets-geopolitical-risk-202603311026 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 10:26:27 Z
[2] EUR/USD: Rate repricing and oil shock cap upside – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-rate-repricing-and-oil-shock-cap-upside-ing-202603311005 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 10:05:46 Z
[3] India Trade Deficit – RBI dipped from previous -68.5B to -87.4B in 3Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-trade-deficit-rbi-dipped-from-previous-685b-to-874b-in-3q-202603311002 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 10:02:32 Z
[4] Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) declined to -1% in January from previous 3.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-industrial-sales-nsa-yoy-declined-to-1-in-january-from-previous-36-202603311000 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 10:00:51 Z
[5] Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) fell from previous 0.5% to -0.3% in January URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-industrial-sales-sa-mom-fell-from-previous-05-to-03-in-january-202603311000 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 10:00:38 Z
[6] Oil: War-driven volatility and structural risks – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-war-driven-volatility-and-structural-risks-rabobank-202603310954 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:54:47 Z
[7] EUR/USD flatlines below 1.1500 as Eurozone HICP grows below forecasts URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-flatlines-below-11500-as-eurozone-hicp-grows-below-forecasts-202603310953 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:53:52 Z
[8] NOK: Oil-driven gains seen reversing after war – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nok-oil-driven-gains-seen-reversing-after-war-commerzbank-202603310945 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:45:00 Z
[9] Euro area: Rising energy risks support ECB hike case – Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-area-rising-energy-risks-support-ecb-hike-case-nordea-202603310935 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:35:36 Z
[10] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202603310933 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:33:16 Z