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2026-W14

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 05:58:08

Executive Summary

  • Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.08)
  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • Credit Signal: Risk ON
  • Breadth: Moderately Bearish (20.4% >50d, 45.0% >200d)
  • Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
  • Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
  • MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • Credit: HY OAS 3.42% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
  • Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $66,297 (Neutral)
  • Seasonality (March): Avg +0.82%, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
SPY $636.90 22.80 19.9 $650.96 Bearish 6.47
QQQ $562.33 21.95 22.5 $561.95 Bearish 4.06
IWM $242.45 34.05 27.7 $165.00 Bearish 8.19

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL GEX Sent PCR
VIX 29.01 61.66 44.3 $10.00 Bullish 0.00
TNX 43.42 62.72 50.5 - - -
GLD $418.29 22.70 54.2 $392.36 Neutral 0.96
DXY 100.46 60.28 44.4 - - -
SLV $65.87 22.84 29.5 $51.17 Neutral 1.11

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.34%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 (Normal)
  • DXY: 100.46
  • Growth vs Value: 0.88
  • Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.29 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 3.42% (Watchful)
  • BBB Spread: 1.14%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 20.4% (of 499)
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 45.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
  • Liquidity Regime: Expanding
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
  • Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
  • BTC-USD: $66,297 (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
  • Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure

Seasonality (March)

  • 20yr Average Return: +0.82%
  • 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
  • Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

  • AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
  • NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
  • TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
  • WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
  • GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

  • GS: 2026-04-13
  • JPM: 2026-04-14
  • TSLA: 2026-04-21
  • GOOGL: 2026-04-23
  • MSFT: 2026-04-29
  • META: 2026-04-29
  • AAPL: 2026-04-30
  • AMZN: 2026-04-30
  • NVDA: 2026-05-20
  • WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

  • Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 633709.0 (Period: 2026-01-01)
  • Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
  • Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
  • Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
  • Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (20):

[1] Australian Dollar rises as Trump’s peace call with Iran improves market mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rises-as-trumps-peace-call-with-iran-improves-market-mood-202603310929 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:29:24 Z

[2] BoJ: Data signal case for more tightening – Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boj-data-signal-case-for-more-tightening-standard-chartered-202603310927 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:27:30 Z

[3] DXY: Softer tone as crude jumps and Fed stays steady – ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-softer-tone-as-crude-jumps-and-fed-stays-steady-ing-202603310913 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:13:26 Z

[4] USD/KRW climbs to 17-year high on Korean Won weakness as BoK monitors FX market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-krw-climbs-to-15-year-high-on-korean-won-weakness-as-bok-monitors-fx-market-202603310913 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:13:09 Z

[5] Breaking: Eurozone flash headline HICP rises moderately by 2.5% YoY vs. 2.7% estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-is-the-preliminary-eurozone-hicp-data-for-march-and-how-could-it-affect-eur-usd-202603310730 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:12:18 Z

[6] JPY: Intervention risk rises as BoJ seen hiking – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/jpy-intervention-risk-rises-as-boj-seen-hiking-mufg-202603310903 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:03:59 Z

[7] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) increased to 1.2% in March from previous 0.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-increased-to-12-in-march-from-previous-06-202603310903 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:03:12 Z

[8] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Remains subdued near 0.5700, four-month lows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-remains-subdued-near-05700-four-month-lows-202603310902 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:02:31 Z

[9] Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.3% below forecasts (2.4%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-came-in-at-23-below-forecasts-24-in-march-202603310900 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:00:58 Z

[10] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) rose from previous 0.6% to 1.9% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-rose-from-previous-06-to-19-in-march-202603310900 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:00:52 Z

[11] Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM): 0.8% (March) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-08-march-202603310900 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:00:44 Z

[12] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) increased to 1.6% in March from previous 0.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-mom-increased-to-16-in-march-from-previous-05-202603310900 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:00:39 Z

[13] Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 1.5% to 1.7% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-15-to-17-in-march-202603310900 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:00:39 Z

[14] Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) unchanged at 1.5% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-yoy-unchanged-at-15-in-march-202603310900 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:00:39 Z

[15] Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.5%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-price-index-mom-in-line-with-forecasts-05-in-march-202603310900 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:00:39 Z

[16] Greece Retail Sales (YoY) down to 4.5% in January from previous 5.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/greece-retail-sales-yoy-down-to-45-in-january-from-previous-51-202603310900 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:00:28 Z

[17] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) registered at 2.5%, below expectations (2.7%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-registered-at-25-below-expectations-27-in-march-202603310900 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:00:04 Z

[18] Germany: Weak labor market signals persist – Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-weak-labor-market-signals-persist-deutsche-bank-202603310857 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 08:57:41 Z

[19] USD: Geopolitics, defence shift and data calendar – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-geopolitics-defence-shift-and-data-calendar-rabobank-202603310847 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 08:47:56 Z

[20] USD/JPY edges down to near 159.60 amid Middle East peace hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-edges-down-to-near-15960-amid-middle-east-peace-hopes-202603310835 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 08:35:04 Z