Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 04:56:58
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.07)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (20.3% >50d, 45.1% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
- MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.42% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $66,818 (Neutral)
- Seasonality (March): Avg +0.82%, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $637.11 | 22.80 | 19.9 | $650.96 | Bearish | 6.47 |
| QQQ | $562.51 | 21.95 | 22.5 | $561.95 | Bearish | 4.06 |
| IWM | $242.66 | 34.05 | 27.7 | $165.00 | Bearish | 8.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 29.01 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.00 | Bullish | 0.00 |
| TNX | 43.42 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $419.64 | 22.70 | 54.2 | $392.36 | Neutral | 0.96 |
| DXY | 100.42 | 59.84 | 44.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.21 | 22.84 | 29.5 | $51.17 | Neutral | 1.11 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.34%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.42
- Growth vs Value: 0.88
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.29 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.42% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.14%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 20.3% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 45.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
- BTC-USD: $66,818 (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
- Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure
Seasonality (March)
- 20yr Average Return: +0.82%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 633709.0 (Period: 2026-01-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] AUD: RBA keeps May hike option open on Iran risk – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-rba-keeps-may-hike-option-open-on-iran-risk-commerzbank-202603310830 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 08:30:12 Z
[2] Dow Jones futures gain on easing risk aversion, lower oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-gains-on-easing-risk-aversion-lower-oil-prices-202603310812 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 08:12:33 Z
[3] Spain Current Account Balance: €2.73B (January) vs €1.8B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-current-account-balance-eu273b-january-vs-eu18b-202603310808 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 08:08:37 Z
[4] ECB: War-driven energy shock shapes rate path – Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-war-driven-energy-shock-shapes-rate-path-nomura-202603310804 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 08:04:58 Z
[5] Germany Unemployment Change below expectations (2K) in February: Actual (0K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-unemployment-change-below-expectations-2k-in-february-actual-0k-202603310755 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:55:01 Z
[6] Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. in line with expectations (6.3%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-unemployment-rate-sa-in-line-with-expectations-63-in-february-202603310755 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:55:00 Z
[7] Gold sticks to modest gains above $4,550 as traders assess prospects of Iran ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rallies-to-over-one-week-top-as-trumps-de-escalation-signals-prompt-usd-selling-202603310328 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:52:40 Z
[8] Brent: Forecast lifted with $150 risk – Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-forecast-lifted-with-150-risk-societe-generale-202603310745 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:45:00 Z
[9] India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR climbed from previous 9814.07B to 12526.49B in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-federal-fiscal-deficit-inr-climbed-from-previous-981407b-to-1252649b-in-february-202603310735 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:35:29 Z
[10] EUR/CAD holds gains near 1.6000 as oil eases, Eurozone HICP eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-cad-holds-gains-near-16000-as-oil-eases-eurozone-hicp-eyed-202603310732 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:32:52 Z
[11] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades above $72.00; bears retain control below 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-trades-above-7200-bears-retain-control-below-100-day-sma-202603310732 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:32:14 Z