Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 03:55:56
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.08)
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (20.3% >50d, 45.1% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
- MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.42% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $67,297 (Neutral)
- Seasonality (March): Avg +0.82%, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $630.54 | 22.80 | 19.9 | $650.96 | Bearish | 6.47 |
| QQQ | $556.04 | 21.95 | 22.5 | $561.95 | Bearish | 4.06 |
| IWM | $238.60 | 34.05 | 27.7 | $165.00 | Bearish | 8.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 28.88 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.00 | Bullish | 0.00 |
| TNX | 43.42 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.43 | 22.70 | 54.2 | $392.36 | Neutral | 0.96 |
| DXY | 100.47 | 60.33 | 44.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $63.33 | 22.84 | 29.5 | $51.17 | Neutral | 1.11 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.34%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.47
- Growth vs Value: 0.88
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.29 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.42% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.14%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 20.3% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 45.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
- BTC-USD: $67,297 (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
- Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure
Seasonality (March)
- 20yr Average Return: +0.82%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 633709.0 (Period: 2026-01-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (17):
[1] When is the preliminary Eurozone HICP data for March and how could it affect EUR/USD? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-is-the-preliminary-eurozone-hicp-data-for-march-and-how-could-it-affect-eur-usd-202603310730 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:30:25 Z
[2] USD/JPY: Early hike risk grows with 160 test – Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-early-hike-risk-grows-with-160-test-standard-chartered-202603310725 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:25:18 Z
[3] Are stock markets ready to recover now? [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/are-stock-markets-ready-to-recover-now-video-202603310711 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:11:40 Z
[4] WTI falls to near $99.50 as Trump truce hopes ease supply fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-falls-to-near-9950-as-trump-truce-hopes-ease-supply-fears-202603310707 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:07:30 Z
[5] EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Euro recovery finds resistance at 0.8700 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-price-analysis-euro-recovery-finds-resistance-at-08700-202603310703 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:03:53 Z
[6] Turkey Trade Balance above expectations (-9.2B) in February: Actual (-9.03B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-trade-balance-above-expectations-92b-in-february-actual-903b-202603310701 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:01:58 Z
[7] Oil: Global shortages intensify US and Asia risks – MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-global-shortages-intensify-us-and-asia-risks-mufg-202603310700 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 07:00:13 Z
[8] Forex Today: Middle East crisis, upcoming US data to keep markets busy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-middle-east-crisis-upcoming-us-data-to-keep-markets-busy-202603310658 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:58:33 Z
[9] Fed: Balance sheet focus and rate-cut path – BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-balance-sheet-focus-and-rate-cut-path-bny-202603310654 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:54:31 Z
[10] EUR/JPY trades subduedly around 183.00 ahead of flash Eurozone HICP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-trades-subduedly-around-18300-ahead-of-flash-eurozone-hicp-data-202603310653 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:53:42 Z
[11] GBP/JPY holds steady above 210.50 after UK macro data; remains close to multi-week low URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-holds-steady-above-21050-after-uk-macro-data-remains-close-to-multi-week-low-202603310648 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:48:02 Z
[12] France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) up to 1.1% in March from previous 0.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-mom-up-to-11-in-march-from-previous-07-202603310647 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:47:54 Z
[13] France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) in line with expectations (1.9%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-price-index-eu-norm-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-19-in-march-202603310645 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:45:54 Z
[14] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Hovers around 100.50 near fresh 10-month highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-hovers-around-10050-near-fresh-10-month-highs-202603310645 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:45:24 Z
[15] France Producer Prices (MoM) meets expectations (-0.2%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-producer-prices-mom-meets-expectations-02-in-february-202603310645 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:45:01 Z
[16] France Consumer Spending (MoM) came in at -1.4% below forecasts (-0.2%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-spending-mom-came-in-at-14-below-forecasts-02-in-february-202603310645 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:45:01 Z
[17] AUD: RBA flags oil-driven inflation risks – Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-rba-flags-oil-driven-inflation-risks-rabobank-202603310637 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:37:04 Z