Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 02:55:03

Executive Summary

Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.07)
Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
Credit Signal: Risk ON
Breadth: Moderately Bearish (20.3% >50d, 44.9% >200d)
Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
Credit: HY OAS 3.42% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $67,401 (Neutral)
Seasonality (March): Avg +0.82%, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	GEX Sent	PCR
SPY	$630.54	22.80	19.9	$643.95	Bearish	6.38
QQQ	$556.04	21.95	22.5	$566.82	Bearish	4.53
IWM	$238.60	34.05	27.7	$165.00	Bearish	8.08

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	GEX Sent	PCR
VIX	30.61	61.66	44.3	$10.50	Bullish	0.68
TNX	43.42	62.72	50.5	-	-	-
GLD	$414.43	22.70	54.2	$392.36	Neutral	0.87
DXY	100.49	60.56	44.3	-	-	-
SLV	$63.33	22.84	29.5	$51.17	Neutral	0.84

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.34%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 (Normal)
DXY: 100.49
Growth vs Value: 0.88
Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.29 (Defensive)

Volatility Structure

MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
0DTE Call Volume: 750,293
0DTE Put Volume: 899,170
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 3.42% (Watchful)
BBB Spread: 1.14%
2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))

Market Breadth (S&P 500)

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 20.3% (of 502)
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 44.9%
Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
Liquidity Regime: Expanding
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
BTC-USD: $67,401 (Neutral)

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure

Seasonality (March)

20yr Average Return: +0.82%
20yr Median Return: +1.48%
Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
Signal: Historically Neutral

EPS Revisions (Watchlist)

AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)

Upcoming Major Earnings

GS: 2026-04-13
JPM: 2026-04-14
TSLA: 2026-04-21
GOOGL: 2026-04-23
MSFT: 2026-04-29
META: 2026-04-29
AAPL: 2026-04-30
AMZN: 2026-04-30
NVDA: 2026-05-20
WMT: 2026-05-21

Economic Releases (FRED)

Today's Key Economic Prints:

Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 633709.0 (Period: 2026-01-01)
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)

Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):

Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30

FX News Wire

Unread articles (18):

[1] German Retail Sales decline unexpectedly by 0.6% MoM vs. estimates of 0.2% growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/german-retail-sales-decline-unexpectedly-by-06-mom-vs-estimates-of-02-growth-202603310630 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:30:30 Z

[2] USD/CAD hits fresh YTD highs past 1.3930 despite a softer US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-steadies-above-13920-despite-a-softer-us-dollar-202603310625 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:25:28 Z

[3] JPY: BoJ hike risk rises with inflation – Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/jpy-boj-hike-risk-rises-with-inflation-danske-bank-202603310623 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:23:50 Z

[4] Gold struggles to extend gains as bulls seem hesitant amid Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rallies-to-over-one-week-top-as-trumps-de-escalation-signals-prompt-usd-selling-202603310328 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:07:28 Z

[5] EUR: ECB still lags Fed on inflation response – Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-ecb-still-lags-fed-on-inflation-response-commerzbank-202603310607 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:07:24 Z

[6] United Kingdom Current Account came in at £-18.392B, above expectations (£-23.4B) in 4Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-current-account-came-in-at-ps-18392b-above-expectations-ps-234b-in-4q-202603310602 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:02:23 Z

[7] United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) up to 2.2% in March from previous 1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-nationwide-housing-prices-nsa-yoy-up-to-22-in-march-from-previous-1-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:54 Z

[8] United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.6%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-nationwide-housing-prices-sa-mom-came-in-at-09-above-expectations-06-in-march-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:51 Z

[9] United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in 4Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-total-business-investment-yoy-meets-forecasts-2-in-4q-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:46 Z

[10] United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) above expectations (-2.7%) in 4Q: Actual (-2.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-total-business-investment-qoq-above-expectations-27-in-4q-actual-25-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:40 Z

[11] United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (1%) in 4Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-gross-domestic-product-yoy-meets-forecasts-1-in-4q-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:27 Z

[12] Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.6% below forecasts (0.2%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-retail-sales-mom-came-in-at-06-below-forecasts-02-in-february-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:11 Z

[13] Germany Retail Sales (YoY) below forecasts (1%) in February: Actual (0.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-retail-sales-yoy-below-forecasts-1-in-february-actual-07-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:08 Z

[14] Germany Import Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at -2.3% in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-import-price-index-yoy-remains-unchanged-at-23-in-february-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:05 Z

[15] Germany Import Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.2%) in February: Actual (0.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-import-price-index-mom-above-forecasts-02-in-february-actual-03-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:05 Z

[16] United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (0.1%) in 4Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-gross-domestic-product-qoq-meets-expectations-01-in-4q-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:03 Z

[17] United Kingdom Current Account above expectations (£-23.4B) in 4Q: Actual (£-18.4B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-current-account-above-expectations-ps-234b-in-4q-actual-ps-184b-202603310600 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 06:00:03 Z

[18] Asian stock markets bleed as Trump calls for peace with Iran without Hormuz reopening URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stock-markets-bleed-as-trump-calls-for-peace-with-iran-without-hormuz-reopening-202603310550 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 05:50:05 Z