Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 01:54:05
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.04)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (20.4% >50d, 44.9% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
- MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.42% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $67,674 (Neutral)
- Seasonality (March): Avg +0.82%, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $630.54 | 22.80 | 19.9 | $643.95 | Bearish | 6.38 |
| QQQ | $556.04 | 21.95 | 22.5 | $566.82 | Bearish | 4.53 |
| IWM | $238.60 | 34.05 | 27.7 | $165.00 | Bearish | 8.08 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 30.61 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.50 | Bullish | 0.68 |
| TNX | 43.42 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.43 | 22.70 | 54.2 | $392.36 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| DXY | 100.46 | 60.20 | 44.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $63.33 | 22.84 | 29.5 | $51.17 | Neutral | 0.84 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.34%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.46
- Growth vs Value: 0.88
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.29 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 750,293
- 0DTE Put Volume: 899,170
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.42% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.14%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 20.4% (of 500)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 44.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
- BTC-USD: $67,674 (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
- Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure
Seasonality (March)
- 20yr Average Return: +0.82%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade: 633709.0 (Period: 2026-01-01)
- Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average: 327.460 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries: Private Industry Workers: 176.233 (Period: 2025-10-01)
- Industrial Production: Total Index: 102.551 (Period: 2026-02-01)
- Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, All Accounts: 20.97 (Period: 2025-11-01)
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD may retest support near 1.3150 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-may-retest-support-near-13150-202603310524 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 05:24:13 Z
[2] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202603310510 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 05:10:14 Z
[3] EUR/USD snaps five-day losing streak as Trump mulls ending Iran war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-snaps-five-day-losing-streak-as-trump-mulls-ending-iran-war-202603310507 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 05:07:32 Z
[4] Japan Construction Orders (YoY): 42.7% (February) vs 5.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-construction-orders-yoy-427-february-vs-57-202603310501 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 05:01:12 Z
[5] Japan Housing Starts (YoY) came in at -4.9% below forecasts (-4.7%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-housing-starts-yoy-came-in-at-49-below-forecasts-47-in-february-202603310500 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 05:00:43 Z
[6] Japan Annualized Housing Starts down to 0.751M in February from previous 0.755M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-annualized-housing-starts-down-to-0751m-in-february-from-previous-0755m-202603310500 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 05:00:34 Z
[7] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202603310500 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 05:00:09 Z
[8] Gold trims a part of intraday gains as hawkish central banks counter softer USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rallies-to-over-one-week-top-as-trumps-de-escalation-signals-prompt-usd-selling-202603310328 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:55:57 Z
[9] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202603310455 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:55:05 Z
[10] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains near 1.3200 despite persistent bearish bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-holds-gains-near-13200-despite-persistent-bearish-bias-202603310453 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:53:26 Z
[11] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202603310445 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:45:03 Z
[12] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls struggle below 160.00 amid intervention fears, softer USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-bulls-struggle-below-16000-amid-intervention-fears-softer-usd-202603310441 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:41:54 Z
[13] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202603310435 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:35:16 Z