Finance Analyst Report: 2026-03-31 00:52:53
Executive Summary
- Market Sentiment: Neutral (Score: -0.04)
- Volatility Regime: Backwardation (Panic)
- Credit Signal: Risk ON
- Breadth: Moderately Bearish (20.3% >50d, 44.9% >200d)
- Net Liquidity: $5,782B (Expanding)
- Dark Pool DIX: 0.393 (Weak/Selling Pressure)
- MOVE Index: 108 | VIX/MOVE: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- Credit: HY OAS 3.42% (Watchful) | 2s10s: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
- Global Liquidity: $16,989B | BTC: $67,600 (Neutral)
- Seasonality (March): Avg +0.82%, Hit Rate 70% (Historically Neutral)
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $630.54 | 22.80 | 19.9 | $643.95 | Bearish | 6.38 |
| QQQ | $556.04 | 21.95 | 22.5 | $566.82 | Bearish | 4.53 |
| IWM | $238.60 | 34.05 | 27.7 | $165.00 | Bearish | 8.08 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 30.61 | 61.66 | 44.3 | $10.50 | Bullish | 0.68 |
| TNX | 43.42 | 62.72 | 50.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.43 | 22.70 | 54.2 | $392.36 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| DXY | 100.44 | 60.03 | 44.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $63.33 | 22.84 | 29.5 | $51.17 | Neutral | 0.84 |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.34%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.74 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.44
- Growth vs Value: 0.88
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.29 (Defensive)
Volatility Structure
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 108.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 750,293
- 0DTE Put Volume: 899,170
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 3.42% (Watchful)
- BBB Spread: 1.14%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Normal (Steepening))
Market Breadth (S&P 500)
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 20.3% (of 502)
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 44.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6657.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $874.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,782B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,648B (USD approx)
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,558B (USD approx)
- Global Net Liquidity (Fed+ECB+BOJ): $16,989B
- BTC-USD: $67,600 (Neutral)
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.393
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): -1.08B
- Signal: Weak/Selling Pressure
Seasonality (March)
- 20yr Average Return: +0.82%
- 20yr Median Return: +1.48%
- Win Rate (% Years Positive): 70%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
EPS Revisions (Watchlist)
- AAPL: $1.96 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT: $4.09 (+0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA: $1.78 (+5.6% vs 30d)
- GOOGL: $2.60 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN: $1.65 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- META: $6.61 (+0.1% vs 30d)
- TSLA: $0.40 (-2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT: $0.66 (-0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM: $5.41 (-1.5% vs 30d)
- GS: $15.93 (+1.5% vs 30d)
Upcoming Major Earnings
- GS: 2026-04-13
- JPM: 2026-04-14
- TSLA: 2026-04-21
- GOOGL: 2026-04-23
- MSFT: 2026-04-29
- META: 2026-04-29
- AAPL: 2026-04-30
- AMZN: 2026-04-30
- NVDA: 2026-05-20
- WMT: 2026-05-21
Economic Releases (FRED)
Today's Key Economic Prints:
- No key economic prints today.
Upcoming Economic Calendar (Next 30 Days):
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-01
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-04-03
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-09
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-04-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202603310429 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:29:56 Z
[2] AUD/JPY steadies near 109.50 following China’s PMI, Japan’s CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-steadies-near-10950-following-chinas-pmi-japans-cpi-data-202603310424 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:24:24 Z
[3] USD/CHF struggles to extent winning streak on de-escalation in Middle East conflicts URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-struggles-to-extent-winning-streak-on-de-escalation-in-middle-east-conflicts-202603310420 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:20:48 Z
[4] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates around 0.6850 as bears await break below 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-consolidates-around-06850-as-bears-await-break-below-100-day-sma-202603310406 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 04:06:34 Z
[5] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps above $73 as Trump shows readiness for peace with Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-jumps-above-73-as-trump-shows-readiness-for-peace-with-iran-202603310352 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 03:52:23 Z
[6] US Dollar Index (DXY) eases from YTD peak, trades below 100.50 on Iran de-escalation hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-eases-from-ytd-peak-trades-below-10050-on-iran-de-escalation-hopes-202603310340 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 03:40:11 Z
[7] Canadian Dollar remains weaker as oil slips URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-remains-weaker-as-oil-slips-202603310337 Published: Tue, 31 Mar 2026 03:37:56 Z