Auto-generated. This article is rebuilt from app/signals/config/signal_definitions.json by scripts/build_signals_kb.py. Edit the registry entry and re-run the script — do not edit this file directly.

Initial Jobless Claims

What it is

Initial Jobless Claims — registry key initial_claims.

Initial Jobless Claims, seasonally adjusted (FRED ICSA); a leading recession indicator. Weekly Thursday release. Ingested + persisted, not yet scored. No band classifier in this PR.

Data-pyramid tier

T0 — Raw input. This metric sits at the raw input layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: fred_macro
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/fred_macro.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Raw seasonally-adjusted Initial Jobless Claims from FRED series ICSA, a count of new unemployment-insurance filings — one of the most timely leading labor-market indicators. Released weekly by the DOL (Thursday ~08:30 ET) for the week ending the prior Saturday. A sustained upturn leads the unemployment rate by months; carried as an early-warning state input for the drawdown lane. Weekly cadence; the FRED latest-observation walk re-reads the same value between releases. data_only carrier — no band classifier. The 4-week moving average (ICSA’s IC4WSA sibling) is deferred to a follow-up. See app/sources/fred_macro.py (ICSA).

Where it surfaces

• API field: fred_macro.initial_claims on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

• Publishes: weekly
• Weekday: Thu (3)
• Approximate time (ET): 08:30
• Lag days: 5

DOL weekly claims, Thursday ~08:30 ET, covering the week ending the prior Saturday.

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.