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Effective Fed Funds Rate

What it is

Effective Fed Funds Rate — registry key effr.

Effective Federal Funds Rate (FRED EFFR); the volume-weighted median overnight rate banks actually transact at. Pairs with the persisted target band (fed_rate_upper/lower) so a target-vs-effective spread is now derivable. Ingested + persisted, not yet scored. No band classifier in this PR.

Data-pyramid tier

T0 — Raw input. This metric sits at the raw input layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: fred_macro
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/fred_macro.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Raw Effective Federal Funds Rate from FRED series EFFR, in percent — the volume-weighted median of overnight federal-funds transactions, i.e. the rate the market actually clears at versus the FOMC target band (fed_rate_upper / fed_rate_lower, already persisted). EFFR drifting toward the top of the band signals reserve scarcity / funding stress, a state input for the drawdown lane. Daily FRED publication (prior business day). data_only carrier — no band classifier. See app/sources/fred_macro.py (EFFR).

Where it surfaces

• API field: fred_macro.effr on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)
• Surface: /signals/sparklines (UI sparklines)

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

• Publishes: daily
• Approximate time (ET): 09:00
• Lag days: 1

NY Fed reference rate via FRED; published ~09:00 ET for the prior business day.

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.