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Complacency-break calm-lane state

What it is

Complacency-break calm-lane state — registry key complacency_break_state.

Companion column to complacency_break_score; carries the state label (out_of_lane/quiet/elevated/high). See app/signals/complacency_break.py.

Data-pyramid tier

T3 — Lens. This metric sits at the lens layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

Horizon: 1-3d — the window this metric’s measured skill speaks to. A horizon stamp is an evidence claim, not a trading signal.

Evidence: Calm-lane 1-3d drawdown HAZARD state (not a forecast). high/elevated read off the permutation-gated legA/legB survivors (live-prior grade; research/findings/DDX_complacency_breaks_2026-06-10.md + research/planning/prereg_complacency_break_2026-06-10.md). high-state historical read ~19-29% chance of a -1.5/-2% 3-day drawdown vs ~7-13% calm base. Modern-era (2024+) claim for the expiring-pin leg. Forward card (CB-2) is the judge. Amplification context, never direction.

Source

Source module: capture
Data source: computed

Derived metric — produced inside the platform (app/signals/capture.py or equivalent) rather than fetched as a raw upstream value. See the How it's computed section below for the formula.

How it’s computed

Categorical calm-lane state: ‘out_of_lane’ (VIX >= 18 — the stress-lane flags own that regime) / ‘high’ (any HIGH trigger: at_flip_catalyst or expiring_pin) / ‘elevated’ (the near-flip-catalyst ELEVATED tier only) / ‘quiet’ (calm lane, no trigger). See app/signals/complacency_break.py:evaluate_complacency_break.

Where it surfaces

• API field: positioning.complacency_break.state on GET /api/v1/signals/latest
• Surface: daily_signals row (daily-cadence persistence)

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

• Publishes: intraday

See also

• /kb/api/get-signals-latest — API endpoint that serves this field.